In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we examine protest risks facing the fossil fuels industry in Europe amid escalating climate activism and a growing public appetite for expediting the energy transition, assess prospects for intensified unrest ahead of elections in Senegal, and look at what challenges lay ahead for Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive.
From suing to sabotage: Protest risks to the fossil fuels industry
As governments and the wider public push for companies operating in the fossil fuel space to show greater responsibility in their efforts to help combat climate change, some activist groups have adopted a more direct approach. The ongoing war in Ukraine has introduced growing urgency to Europe’s transitioning to green energy, which could intensify activism targeting such firms, driving the potential for reputational risk, legal challenges, shareholder activism and even infrastructure sabotage. Read the article.
Democratic backsliding? Uncertainty and unrest ahead of Senegal's 2024 election
Once revered as a democratic reformer, President Macky Sall has moved to suppress opposition and appears likely to run for another term in office, which many view as unconstitutional. With violent unrest accompanying the sentencing of a prominent opposition candidate in early June, rising political tensions will likely fuel sporadic unrest and violence ahead of the February 2024 elections. Read the article.
Measuring Success: The possible outcomes for Ukraine's counteroffensive
Even as Ukraine continues to prove its ability to hold its own against a larger military force, several challenges threaten its recently-launched southern and eastern counteroffensive. Success will mean recapturing (and holding) strategic Russian-occupied territory, but failure could cost the conditional support – and much needed resources – of Western allies. Read the article.