Despite growing surveillance and increasingly restricted access to weapons globally, active assailant attacks continue to pose a significant threat in the travel security landscape. Through analysing active assailant incidents in 2025, Neo Tsotetsi unpacks factors which will continue to drive the threat in the coming year.
Active assailant attacks continue to pose a significant threat globally despite growing efforts by authorities to improve their surveillance and early detection capabilities. The distinct mix of unclear assailant motivations, indiscriminate victim targeting and speed that such incidents hold leaves a small window for intervention, creating unique challenges for law enforcement in prevention and response. In 2025, S-RM recorded 77 active assailant incidents in 28 countries globally, nearly five times the 16 incidents recorded in 2019. These figures, while only accounting for incidents disclosed by authorities, offer insight into the trends and drivers motivating active assailant incidents.
*Recorded incidents are based on publicly available information at the time of recording and actual number of incidents may differ.
Weapons used in active assailant attacks in 2025 varied widely. In the US, relatively easy access to firearms resulted in most fatal attacks resulting from shooting incidents. Elsewhere, however, with increasing restrictions and monitoring around firearm ownership, assailants have pivoted towards the use of improvised weapons such as easily accessible knives and vehicles. Bladed weapons have formed a significant portion of this threat, with 31 attacks in 2025 reporting use of such an accessory and resulting in at least 95 casualties. Meanwhile, though attacks including rudimentary explosive devices or vehicle-ramming are notably less common, they continue to pose a considerable threat due to the high casualties they can cause in a single event. The otherwise innocuous nature of many of these improvised weapons – including explosives, which typically feature components that can easily be purchased – has made preventative legislation and early detection more challenging for authorities. These challenges are compounded by the speed with which such incidents can move from ideation to fruition, as well as the limited links assailants have to known violent ideologies and groups. As such, though authorities will continue to improve their prevention and response capabilities, assailants’ use of improvised weapons will sustain the threat of mass casualty attacks in the coming year.
*Recorded incidents are based on publicly available information at the time of recording and actual number of incidents may differ.
| Europe | North America | Asia Pacific |
| France | United States | Indonesia |
| On 10 June, 14-year-old student killed one person and injured another in a stabbing attack at a college in Nogent, Haute-Marne Department. The assailant struck during a routine bag check for weapons, killing one teaching assistant and injuring a police officer before being arrested. While in custody, he reportedly told police that he had intended to cause maximum damage and kill ''any'' school monitors in retaliation for being reprimanded at school. | On 28 July, 27-year-old assailant killed four people and injured one other in a shooting targeting an office building in Manhattan, New York City, before fatally shooting himself. The assailant, later identified to be a Las Vegas resident, had reportedly written a suicide note indicating he had grievances with a professional US football league headquartered at the targeted building. | On 7 November, 17-year-old student detonated four explosive devices at a high school and mosque in Kelapa Gading District in Jakarta, injuring 96 people. Investigations later revealed the student had been radicalised online, expressing admiration for several previous active assailant attacks and referencing obscure conspiracy theories through inscriptions on his weapons. |
A significant proportion of attacks in 2025, as well as the past decade, have been staged at locations such as educational institutions and commercial premises, often driven by their relatively lax security and high concentration of people, as well as assailants’ personal connections thereto. Such high traffic, low restriction locations will likely remain prominent targets for assailants, with motivations including personal grievances and mental health challenges also likely to continue driving future attacks. However, pro-violence online communities such as No Lives Matter (NLM), as well as a radical faction of the True Crime Community (TCC), have gained increased prominence in recent years, with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue linking TCC to 16 active shooter investigations in 2024, including seven attacks and nine disrupted plots. Such communities are anchored around a shared glorification of violence instead of a religious or political ideology, with participants often prioritising the aesthetic of violence over its motive. This both obfuscates the kinds of locations perpetrators would target and, as members of these communities frequently share materials which can aid in preparing an attack, stands to heavily contribute to equipping future assailants.
Due to the diversity of locations, attacker profiles, motives for attack and use of easily accessible weapons, active assailants present a particularly challenging threat. Improved preparation and response capabilities by authorities across commonly targeted locations can limit casualties, and in many jurisdictions authorities have additionally sought to prevent attacks by strengthening restrictions. For example, in Germany, bans and penalties have been implemented around owning and carrying certain bladed weapons and restrictions are tighter in designated ‘weapons-free zones’, which include public transport stations and recreational areas. While these measures may help to improve perceptions of safety in public spaces, and reduce the frequency of incidents in some cases, enforcement will remain difficult, as will predicting the occurrence of specific incidents. As such, there remains significant potential for active assailant attacks over the coming year, with tourist attractions and public gatherings like cultural and sporting events likely to be highly attractive targets for perpetrators.