Global Risk Hub | S-RM

Vol 10, 2025 | World news in brief: A round-up of key political violence developments globally

Written by Asees Bajaj | Nov 28, 2025 2:12:28 PM
Terrorism

India

On 10 November, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb in the populous Red Fort District in New Delhi, killing at least 10 people and wounding 32 others. No group has claimed the attack, although authorities have linked the bomber and two conspirators to the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir and the Jaish-e-Mohammed Islamist extremist group. Separatist groups and Islamist extremists in Jammu and Kashmir maintain a strong intent to carry out attacks in India’s major cities. However, counter-terrorism measures have reduced the opportunity for high-impact attacks in urban areas, and such incidents are rare. For example, prior to this latest attack, the last significant bombing in a major city occurred in Hyderabad, Telangana State, in February 2013, killing 16 people and wounding more than 100 others outside a cinema and bus station.

Civil Unrest

Bangladesh

On 17 November, Bangladesh’s international crimes tribunal found former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina guilty on charges of crimes against humanity, for her role in the police clamp down on student activists in July 2024. The trial and the court’s verdict have raised political tensions in Dhaka and countrywide in recent weeks. Supporters of the Awami League, Hasina’s political party, have staged several violent protests in support of Hasina, as well as dozens of improvised bombings and arson attacks, largely in the capital city. In anticipation of further unrest, authorities have increased security checkpoints and patrols and restricted public gatherings around government buildings. Further protests and acts of arson and sabotage are likely in the coming months, particularly ahead of general elections in February 2026.

War

Lebanon

In early November, Israel intensified its daily attacks against Hezbollah’s fighters and weaponry in southern Lebanon, with airstrikes targeting towns across the region, including Aaita El Jabal, Tayr Debba, Taybeh and Kfar Dounine. Several fatalities continue to be reported daily. The attacks come amid elevated tensions over Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm, and its rebuilding of infrastructure in southern and eastern Lebanon, with financial and military aid from Iran. Hezbollah’s activities – limited at present to recruitment campaigns, reconnaissance drone flights, and rebuilding drone launchers – will likely exacerbate regional tensions over the coming weeks and months.

War

Ukraine

 In November, reports surfaced of a US-brokered 28-point peace plan aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The proposal, reportedly negotiated between US and Russian officials without Ukrainian participation, drew criticism for being overly favourable to Moscow. Ukrainian officials and many observers rejected the plan, noting that, in its original form, it would effectively recognise Russian control over occupied territory in Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, impose limits on Ukraine’s military, and reintegrate Russia into the global economy. The US initially pushed for Ukraine to agree to the deal by 27 November; however, Ukrainian negotiators are now working with US counterparts to secure terms more acceptable to Kyiv. The proposal comes as Russia intensifies its airstrike campaign – launching 268 ballistic missiles in October, the highest monthly total of the war, along with more than 5,000 drones – and as Russian forces make territorial gains, including around the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Terrorism

Germany

On 10 November, authorities arrested a German-Polish dual national in Dortmund, North Rhine-Westphalia, for allegedly operating an online platform that called for the assassination of several high-profile German politicians and officials. The suspect, identified only as 'Martin S.' in accordance with German privacy laws, is accused of anonymously running a dark web platform on which he shared instructions for making explosives and solicited cryptocurrency donations to 'reward' successful assassinations targeting 20 prominent German politicians and government officials including former chancellors Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz. Local reports suggest the suspect may have ties to the Reichsbürger (Reich Citizens) movement, a far-right group that rejects the legitimacy of the post-World War Two German state and retains high intent to carry out attacks targeting German government officials.

Civil unrest

Portugal

On 8 November, tens of thousands of unionised workers and supporters protested in Lisbon to denounce proposed labour reforms which unions claim would erode workers’ rights. The government’s proposed changes to Portugal’s labour laws purport to give workers more flexibility and help small businesses. However, unions maintain that several provisions in the reforms – including those which would ease regulations concerning employee dismissals, retrenchments and outsourcing while increasing rules for workers’ strikes – threaten job security and working conditions. The Confederação Geral dos Trabalhadores Portugueses (General Confederation of the Portuguese Workers, CGTP) estimates around 100,000 attended the 8 November protest and has indicated intent to hold further protests in the coming months should the government not halt the reforms. Additionally, unions have announced a countrywide general strike for 11 December, sustaining potential for widespread travel and commercial disruptions.

Terrorism

Poland

On 17 November, authorities reported that an explosion had damaged a section of railway track near the village of Mika in Masovian Voivodeship on the Warsaw–Lublin line – a key route for delivering aid and military support to Ukraine. The blast caused no casualties and did not derail any trains. The day before, on 16 November, a train was forced to stop due to damaged overhead cables at Puławy in Lublin Voivodeship. Polish officials have stated that the two incidents were connected acts of sabotage orchestrated by Russian intelligence services. Authorities have since identified two Ukrainian nationals, who have fled to Belarus, as the perpetrators, alleging they were acting on behalf of Russian intelligence. Several additional arrests have also been made in connection with the attacks. The incidents align with Russia’s intensifying grey-zone activities in Poland and other European countries supporting Ukraine, including infrastructure sabotage, drone incursions, cyberattacks, airspace violations, and disinformation campaigns. In response, authorities have increased surveillance and security along key supply routes amid heightened grey-zone activity along NATO’s eastern flank.

Civil unrest

Peru

On 14 November, thousands of protesters gathered in central Lima and other cities as part of a countrywide protest led by the Generación Z movement, seeking justice for victims of police violence and to express dissatisfaction with President José Jerí’s interim government. The protest followed from a 25 October countrywide demonstration involving Generación Z activists demanding justice for a protester that was killed by police during demonstrations earlier in the month. While the protests were largely peaceful, police maintained a heightened presence to prevent violent escalations. The potential for further demonstrations and unrest in the coming weeks remains likely amid rising anti-government sentiment and wider grievances over crime and corruption.

Civil unrest

Brazil

On 11 November, altercations broke out between climate activists, United Nations (UN) security staff, and Brazilian police during the first week of the UN’s 30th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belém, Para State. Dozens of activists breached metal detectors and forced entry into a restricted area of the conference venue. During the confrontation, one police officer sustained head injuries, and two security personnel suffered minor injuries. The demonstrators chanted slogans linking climate change to health impacts in the Amazon forest and condemned the government’s prioritisation of building a new city in Belém while allegedly neglecting indigenous land rights, environmental protection, and public services. On 16 November, thousands demonstrated outside the conference venue carrying signs reading 'demarcation now,' triggering an increased security presence around the conference venue. With urgency continuing to grow around the global climate crisis, climate activists are likely to continue demonstrations in the coming months, targeting high-profile events linked to climate change and environmental policy.

Civil unrest

Mexico

On 24 November, hundreds of farmers and truck drivers affiliated with the Asociación Nacional de Transportistas (ANTAC), Movimiento Agrícola Campesino (MAC) and Frente Nacional para el Rescate del Campo Mexicano (FNRCM) blockaded major highways, border crossings (including at the US-Mexico border crossing in Chihuahua state), and port access routes across 25 states countrywide. The farmers were opposing government reforms to the General Water Law and demanding higher support prices for crops, while truck drivers were protesting to improve highway security including incidents of theft, hijacking and police extortion. The blockades disrupted industrial supply chains, freight deliveries, cross-border trade, food distribution, and e-commerce delivery networks, prompting companies reliant on logistical routes to reroute trade and postpone travel. On 27 November, the demonstrators agreed to lift the blockades following a meeting between union representatives and the Ministry of Interior, during which the ministry stated its intent to address the raised concerns. Protests and blockades are likely to recur should the government fail to address grievances. 

Terrorism

US

On 3 November, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) confirmed that two men had been charged in connection with an alleged terror plot to carry out a mass shooting on 31 October in the state of Michigan. Authorities stated that the two suspects were looking to target bars and clubs frequented by members of the LGBTQ+ community in Dearborn and Ferndale suburbs. Police officers apprehended the two suspects during coordinated raids in Dearborn and Inkster, where they seized firearms, ammunition and tactical gear. While robust counter-terrorism measures have substantially diminished the opportunity for coordinated attacks, US authorities continue to advise of a heightened threat of attack against the LGBTQ+ community and faith-based groups.

Terrorism

Mali

In October and November, Jama’at Nasr Al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) continued its blockade of fuel imports into Mali, causing shortages in the capital and prompting authorities to close schools and universities for two weeks. The group also carried out attacks on military positions in central Mali, killing 48 soldiers in one assault on a post in Soumpi, Tombouctou Region. While JNIM maintains the intent, it still lacks the heavy weaponry, manpower, and centralised command needed to capture the capital militarily. The blockade likely forms part of a broader strategy to pressure the ruling military junta – either to provoke another coup by disgruntled elements within the military or to extract concessions in future negotiations. As a result, significant commercial and operational disruptions are expected in the capital for the foreseeable future while JNIM continues to consolidate its territorial control in western and central Mali.

Civil unrest

Tanzania

On 29 October, anti-government demonstrations erupted in Dar es Salaam and other cities on the morning of Tanzania’s 2025 general election, driven by grievances over alleged election tampering and fraud. Popular opposition candidates had been detained or barred from contesting the election, leaving the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan unopposed. On election day, protesters in Dar es Salaam blockaded roads and set fire to ballot boxes and polling stations, after which authorities imposed an indefinite curfew and began disrupting internet access countrywide. However, demonstrations continued to spread countrywide and grew more violent in the following days amid reports that Hassan had gained a lead and later won with a 97.7 percent vote share. In Dar es Salaam, shortages of food, fuel and cash emerged, while prolonged internet interruptions disrupted air travel countrywide. Casualties have not yet been confirmed; however, opposition party Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo claims between 1,000 and 2,000 were killed in clashes with police. Authorities also charged over 200 protesters with treason, signalling their intent to continue suppressing dissent to preserve CCM rule.