Global Risk Hub | S-RM

Vol 4, 2025 | World news in brief: A round-up of key political violence developments globally

Written by Saif Islam | May 30, 2025 2:36:32 PM
Terrorism

US 

On 17 May, an assailant detonated an explosive device targeting an in vitro fertilisation facility in Palm Springs, California. The attacker was killed in the explosion and four others were injured. The blast caused significant property damage to the clinic, although no embryos stored inside the facility were harmed. The assailant’s manifesto suggests he held antinatalist views. Although abortion clinics have been targeted in the past in the US, reproductive centres like fertility clinics have typically been insulated. However, a wider range of reproductive issues have become increasingly politicised, with the Alabama Supreme Court stating in a 2024 ruling that frozen embryos created through IVF were considered children under state law, exposing clinics to an array of criminal charges and ideologically motivated attacks.

Terrorism

US

On 21 May, a gunman opened fire on a group of people leaving an event at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, DC, fatally shooting two Israeli embassy employees. The shooter shouted pro-Palestine slogans after the attack. Police subsequently detained the gunman, identified as Elias Rodriguez, a 30-year-old from Chicago. The incident prompted a major police response and shut down several streets in the city, while a campus of Georgetown University was also temporarily locked down. Tensions relating to the conflict in Gaza remain elevated, and further attacks driven by both anti-Israel and anti-Palestine sentiment are possible in the coming months.

Civil Unrest

Panama

In May, unionised teachers, farmers, and other workers continued widespread demonstrations as part of an ongoing protest campaign to demand the repeal of a controversial pension reform law. Demonstrators also denounced a recent agreement between Panama and the US, which allows the US military to increase its presence in the country. Protests began on 23 April and have included blockades of key roads countrywide, prompting hundreds of road closures and severe travel disruptions. Although police have arrested around 200 protesters and removed most blockades, fresh arrest orders for several leaders of one of Panama’s largest unions on money laundering charges risk reigniting more disruptive demonstrations.

Civil Unrest

Indonesia

On 20 May, thousands of e-hailing drivers protested outside the governor's office in Surabaya to denounce allegedly exploitative policies and regulatory negligence by ride-hailing and food delivery apps. Demonstrators also demanded that e-hailing companies implement a 10 percent cap on the commission they take, and suspend discounted fare programmes to increase drivers’ take-home pay. Further peaceful protests were reported outside government buildings and app company offices in Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and Semarang, attended by hundreds of drivers. Several companies have refused to lower their commission fees, while an upcoming merger between two prominent operators is likely to further exacerbate drivers’ fears of a monopoly in the sector, sustaining the threat of further protests in the coming months.

Civil Unrest

Bangladesh

On 3 May, at least 20,000 supporters of the Hefazat-e-Islam Islamist group demonstrated near Dhaka University to denounce proposed legislative reforms aimed at increasing gender equality, particularly in relation to property rights. Protesters also demanded the dissolution of a government commission tasked with addressing gender-based violence in the country. In response, on 16 May, 3,000 women marched near parliament in Dhaka to demand that the interim government publicly declare support for the commission, and to denounce the growing influence of hard-line Islamist groups. Both protests were peaceful. Further demonstrations are likely in the coming months, driven by ongoing political uncertainty following the August 2024 insurrection against the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

War

Iran/Israel 

On 13 June, Israel launched an airstrike campaign targeting energy and military sites across Iran, including in Tehran, Natanz and Isfahan, with Israeli authorities stating that the attacks sought to disrupt and erode Iran's growing nuclear enrichment capabilities. In the days that followed, Iran responded with hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel, targeting major cities including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, and Jerusalem. Israel’s attacks on Iran have caused significant damage to the country’s military command centres, oil, gas and nuclear infrastructure, and residential buildings. As of 16 June, at least 224 people have been killed in Iran, including several high-profile military leaders and nuclear scientists, while in Israel, Iranian attacks have resulted in 24 fatalities and 500 injured. Several countries closed their airspace, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan and Syria, prompting widespread flight cancellations and diversions by major airlines, while Pakistan closed its land borders with Iran. It remains unclear whether either side is willing to participate in negotiations towards a ceasefire, and there is a strong potential for further escalations in the days and weeks ahead.

War

Libya 

On 12 May, rival militias clashed in Tripoli following a decision by the Government of National Unity (GNU) to restructure parts of the city’s security apparatus and dismiss several militia leaders from official posts. Fighting broke out after an official meeting between the GNU-affiliated 444th Combat Brigade and the Stability Support Authority (SSA), in which the government seized the SSA’s security headquarters and SSA leader, Abdel Ghani Al Kikli, was killed. Clashes continued for at least three days, centred around the Abu Salim District in southern Tripoli. At least 58 people were killed, including six civilians, and 93 others were injured. The two groups agreed to a ceasefire on 14 May. However, powerful armed groups continue to compete for influence in Libya, and particularly in Tripoli, leading to frequent violent clashes.

War

Syria

In late April and early May, Israel conducted a series of airstrikes across Syria, including one that targeted an area close to the Presidential Palace in Damascus. Israeli officials stated that the strikes sought to weaken the military capabilities of the Islamist Syrian government, and form part of an ongoing operation to protect the Druze community in Syria, following recent clashes between Druze groups and Sunni militant factions aligned with Syria's interim government. Since Hayat Tahrir Al Sham seized control of Damascus in December and installed a new government, Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes across Syria and captured a demilitarised buffer zone in Syrian territory adjacent to the Golan Heights.

Civil Unrest

Regional 

On 20 May, thousands of unionised farmers from EU member states protested proposed budget reforms outside the European Commission building in Brussels and in Dublin. The demonstrations were driven by concerns over potential cuts to agricultural funding in the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, which, in current drafts, consolidate several funding programmes. Farmers argue the changes would gradually erode Common Agricultural Policy funds, increasing financial pressure. In Brussels, Hungarian farmers also opposed Ukraine’s potential EU accession, claiming its vast farmland could absorb nearly one fifth of the total EU agricultural budget. Farmers’ protests have become more frequent across the region, and although EU leaders have pledged to protect key programmes, persistent concerns are likely to drive further demonstrations in 2025.

Terrorism

Germany

On 21 May, police arrested five suspected members of the far-right group, Last Wave of Defence, in a series of countrywide raids. The group, which emerged around April 2024, carried out attacks on a community centre in Brandenburg State in October 2024 and a migrant shelter in Saxony State in January, with the 21 May arrests reportedly thwarting a planned arson attack on a migrant shelter in Brandenburg. Politically motivated crimes reached their highest recorded level in 2024, increasing by nearly 40 percent compared to 2023. Meanwhile, violence motivated by right-wing ideology increased by nearly 50 percent and comprised almost a quarter of ideologically motivated violent crimes.

Terrorism

Nigeria 

In May, Islamist militants carried out a series of attacks in northeastern Nigeria, amid a resurgence of groups such as Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram. These groups have grown increasingly confident and aggressive in targeting both civilian and military sites. On 12 May, for instance, ISWAP militants attacked a military base in Marte, Borno State, killing several soldiers, capturing others, looting ammunition, and destroying vehicles. Militant activity has forced at least 20,000 residents to flee Marte, a town that both groups have previously controlled. ISWAP, in particular, appears to have gained strength through an influx of foreign fighters and the use of more sophisticated weaponry, including drones. Meanwhile, regional counter-terrorism efforts have been weakened by developments such as Niger’s withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force. As a result, escalating Islamist militant activity is likely to persist in the region in the coming months.

Terrorism

Mozambique 

In May, Al Sunnah militants attempted to attack the Russian-flagged vessel Atlantida K-1704 approximately four nautical miles east of Tambuzi Island, near Mocímboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado Province. The ship managed to escape by navigating into deeper waters, likely moving beyond the militants’ range. This marks the first known attempt by Al Sunnah to target a foreign-flagged vessel off the Mozambican coast, as their offshore activity has previously been limited to attacks on local fishing boats. It remains unclear whether this signals the beginning of a broader trend of Al Sunnah targeting commercial vessels. However, given the length of the Cabo Delgado coastline, persistent security challenges in the region, and the limited naval capabilities of Mozambique and its regional partners, any increase in militant activity offshore is likely to heighten concerns for both regional security and operational environments.