In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we explore the outcome of the June 2025 NATO summit and its implications for European member states, the commercial consequences of the Israel-Iran war on critical trade infrastructure and air travel, and Thailand’s latest political turmoil as the governing coalition weakens amid a border dispute and political scandal.
A roundup of key political violence developments globally. Read this article
With European member states pledging increased defence spending, the recent NATO summit signals apparent commitment to boosting regional security capabilities. But beneath the surface, tensions and unresolved issues persist, including an unclear strategy around Russia’s continued aggression, challenges in meeting spending requirements, and questions around US strategy in the region. Read this article
The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025 caused extensive turmoil to maritime and aviation operations throughout the Middle East region. Despite a ceasefire that remains in place, intermittent disruptions can be expected to continue in the coming months. Read this article
In June 2025, a leaked phone call between Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate president Hun Sen exposed longstanding divisions between the Pheu Thai-led government and Thailand's influential military establishment. With the coalition government’s already-tentative grip on power slipping, the military could leverage instability to expand its influence. Read this article