war
Central African Republic
On 10 July, the Unité pour la Paix en Centrafrique (UPC) and the Retour, Réclamation et Réhabilitation (3R) rebel groups signed a peace agreement with the government, committing to disarm and dissolve in the coming months. For the past decade, both groups have controlled large areas across the country’s eastern, central, western, northern, and northwestern regions. Previous efforts to end hostilities, such as the 2019 peace deal, have failed due to the withdrawal of key rebel groups and the government's inability to integrate their leaders into state structures. While the UPC and 3R are the country’s largest rebel groups, and their decision to disband is a significant development that could signal improvements to the security environment in the longer-term, the government continues to have limited control over much of the country, and localised militias remain active in many areas.
civil unrest
South Africa
Activists marched in several cities countrywide between 15 and 20 July to show support for Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, the Police Commissioner for KwaZulu-Natal Province, after he accused Police Minister Senzo Mchunu and other senior officers of involvement in organised crime at a press conference in early July. While President Cyril Ramaphosa suspended Mchunu pending the outcome of a judicial commission of inquiry, public frustration around rising crime in the country – and alleged death threats against Mkhwanazi – have prompted a wider backlash claiming that the government’s response is largely insufficient. With wider participation from civil society and some political parties, demonstrations could continue and even escalate should the government be perceived as quashing Mkhwanazi’s allegations, or if his contract is not renewed when it expires in August 2025.
war
Democratic Republic of the Congo
On 19 July, representatives from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the M23 rebel group signed a Declaration of Principles in Doha, Qatar, committing to a permanent ceasefire and the conclusion of peace negotiations by 18 August. This marks an unprecedented step in efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Congo, and represents the first agreement made directly between the DRC and M23, rather than one brokered through Rwanda, which supports the rebel group. It also follows a June peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. However, previous ceasefires and peace agreements have often collapsed, leading to renewed fighting with little warning; for example, clashes between M23 and pro-government Wazalendo militants have continued despite an earlier ceasefire jointly announced by the DRC and Rwandan authorities in late April.
civil unrest
UK
In June and July, pro-Palestine activists held weekly protests across the country denouncing the government’s decision to ban the prominent Palestine Action (PA) activist group, and designate it as a terrorist organisation. Founded in 2020, PA is known for using disruptive tactics in their pro-Palestine activities, including defacing and occupying buildings, and often targeting companies linked to the Israeli military. The ban, which took effect on 5 July, places PA under the same legal restrictions as groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, making public support for the group punishable by up to 14 years in prison. Since then, hundreds of activists have been arrested during demonstrations, and police have increased their presence around key locations such as Parliament Square to deter further unrest. However, protests are expected to continue in the coming weeks as tensions persist.
war
Ukraine
In June and July, Russia significantly intensified its airstrike campaign against Ukraine, launching near-daily drone and missile attacks on major cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipro. In late June, Russian missile strikes targeting Dnipro in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed 15 people, and in July, Russia launched its largest aerial assault since the conflict began, involving over 700 drones and 13 hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to make limited territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, capturing several villages in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as making their first advance into Dnipropetrovsk. However, despite Ukraine’s ongoing personnel and equipment shortages, Russia likely lacks the capability to achieve a decisive military breakthrough against Ukrainian frontlines in the coming months.
civil unrest
Peru
In July, blockades by illegal miners across copper-producing provinces such as Chumbivilcas, Caravelí, and Santiago de Chuco, caused significant travel delays and disrupted logistics for nearby mines, forcing the government to agree to talks with the miners amid growing pressure from foreign-owned companies. The protest campaign, which began on 27 June, opposes a bill aimed at regulating illegal mining by requiring the registration of miners and their operations. Protesters argue that these requirements are cumbersome and difficult to meet. On 15 July, activists temporarily lifted blockades along key copper transit routes ahead of the negotiations, scheduled for 18 July. However, demonstrators have warned they will resume these actions if the government proceeds with the regularisation process.
civil unrest
Mexico
On 4 July, hundreds of people marched through popular tourist areas in Mexico City to denounce the growing number of foreign visitors, and to call for increased regulations on tourism. Demonstrations began peacefully, but after several hours, masked protesters vandalised and looted luxury businesses in the Condesa and Roma neighbourhoods. Protesters also rallied outside the US embassy amid a heightened police presence. Mexico City has grown increasingly popular among ‘digital nomads’ in recent years, especially US nationals whom protesters accuse of driving up local rent prices. Although these claims are disputed, public perception of the issue persists, and anti-tourism sentiment could fuel further unrest or associated disruptions to business should the government fail to address grievances.
terrorism
Colombia
As President Gustavo Petro’s ‘Total Peace’ plan to address militant violence falters, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) militant group have sought to showcase their might. In early July, coinciding with the group’s 61st anniversary, militants launched a series of attacks, including in the departments of Arauca, Guaviare and Cauca. Some blocked the Cabal Pombo highway connecting to Buenaventura in Cauca, burning three cargo vehicles, and prompting severe travel and logistical disruptions. In Calamar, militants launched an explosive device at military personnel from a drone, and in Tame, Arauca, the Bicentenario oil pipeline was reportedly damaged in an attack. Commuters along the Pan-American Highway also reported an illegal ELN checkpoint in Cauca, where militants robbed passengers, while sections of the highway were closed due to clashes between group members and security forces near the Piendamó River. Colombia’s armed forces indicated that it had foiled 32 attacks, and that the group had planned to target locations in other provinces, particularly military installations, critical infrastructure, government buildings, and banks.
civil unrest
US
On 12 July, dozens protested in Fairview Borough, New Jersey, to denounce increased immigration raids by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. During the demonstration, a motorist drove their vehicle into the crowd, injuring several activists, after engaging in a verbal altercation with a protester. Police have detained the driver on multiple criminal charges, including reckless driving and assault by auto resulting in injury. Tensions related to immigration raids remain high across the country, with many demonstrations against the raids devolving into clashes between protesters and police in recent months. Further crackdowns and ICE raids will sustain public frustration and drive potential for disruptive unrest in the coming weeks.
civil unrest
Bangladesh
On 16 July, Awami League (AL) supporters disrupted a political rally in Gopalganj, Dhaka Division, led by the National Citizens Party (NCP), a group that emerged from the student-led movement that ousted AL leader and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. AL supporters clashed with police and set vehicles on fire, while vandalism, arson, and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks were reported across the city throughout the day. At least four people were killed and more than 50 injured. Authorities imposed an overnight curfew, and by 17 July, the unrest had largely subsided. Nevertheless, political tensions in Bangladesh remain high, and further violent protests are likely in the lead-up to the April 2026 general election.
civil unrest
India
On 9 July, hundreds of thousands of unionised workers launched a 24-hour countrywide strike to denounce government labour policies and recent moves to privatise state-owned enterprises. The industrial action caused widespread disruptions across multiple sectors. Coal mining operations were halted in several states, while services were affected at banks, insurance firms, manufacturing plants, and supermarkets across the country. The strike was accompanied by demonstrations and marches in major cities, including New Delhi and Kolkata, with some protesters blockading roads and railway lines. Workers’ grievances over the government’s labour policies persist, sustaining a wider threat to commercial activities amid potential for further activism.
WAR
Syria
On 11 July, tensions flared between Druze armed militias and Bedouin Sunni tribes in Sweida Governorate, sparked by a series of retaliatory kidnappings between the two rival groups. The conflict quickly escalated, with armed clashes spreading across the region. The government deployed military forces and attempted to mediate, but two ceasefire agreements failed. Over several days, hundreds of people were killed, including dozens of soldiers. Meanwhile, Israeli forces intervened in support of the Druze, conducting airstrikes across southern Syria. In a notable airstrike on 16 July, an Israeli missile hit the Ministry of Defence in Damascus, and another landed near the Presidential Palace. While ceasefires between Israel and Syria, and between the Druze and Bedouin groups, remain in place and fighting has subsided, tensions persist and there is strong potential for renewed clashes in the coming months.
