On 12th April, Hungarians will vote to elect their new parliament, with Sunday’s elections presenting the most serious challenge to Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party since taking power in 2010. The Tisza party, lead by Péter Magyar – who left Fidesz in 2024 – is the first challenger able to threaten Fidesz’s dominance. Multiple polls show Tisza ahead of Fidesz – a novelty for a Hungarian opposition party – and even holding the potential to secure a two-thirds majority, according to some recent projections.
The elections will be the deciding factor in multiple disputes within the EU, including Hungary’s ability to unlock and spend substantial EU funds, and the country’s stance vis-à-vis the EU’s Russia policy and funding for Ukraine.
Domestic grievances
The strength of Tisza’s challenge lies with Magyar’s uniting of a previously fragmented opposition and framing of the election around key domestic politically-resonant issues, such as significant government corruption, economic stagnation, rampant inflation, poor healthcare and a decline in living standards in Hungary under Fidesz. At the same time, Magyar has avoided casting Hungary-Ukraine relations as a key campaign point for Tisza (see below), while strongly criticising senior Fidesz officials for their close ties to Russia. He has delivered his message in a long-running nationwide grassroots campaign, which has cut across traditional party lines, and has seen Tisza’s successful reclaiming of Hungarian national symbols, which were previously successfully deployed by Fidesz.
The external threat
Fidesz is unable to rely on previous campaign tactics, such as economic patronage (with EU funds to Hungary blocked due to rule-of-law concerns), or previous political innovation, and it has lost credibility over its handling of various economic and political crises. Instead, Fidesz seeks to mobilise voters around perceived external threats to Hungary, framing the election as a referendum on Hungarian and EU support for Ukraine. Fidesz has presented the ongoing war in neighbouring Ukraine as the key economic and security threat for Hungarians, and blamed the EU and Ukraine for Hungary’s current economic problems.
The Russian government – for whom the Hungarian government has been a useful ally and roadblock to EU cohesion on Ukraine – is likely to engage in election interference through bot networks and Hungary-based influencers, boosting Fidesz’s own heavy use of AI generated content, filling Hungarian information space with pro-Fidesz and anti-Ukrainian/EU narratives.
Fidesz’s tactics have been effective in rural areas, where Fidesz traditionally enjoys strong support. Leveraging global geopolitical instability, and presentation of external threats, Orbán seeks to distract from Hungary’s economic problems, positioning himself as the ‘stability’ candidate for risk-averse voters. Simultaneously, Orbán has securitised a recent energy dispute with Ukraine, and stoked fears that Hungary would be required by the EU to contribute militarily and financially to Ukraine if Fidesz lost the election. This fear-mongering may have culminated in the recent reported discovery of explosives in a gas pipeline between Serbia and Hungary, an event dismissed by Magyar as a pre-planned and provocative false-flag operation.
A foregone conclusion?
Tisza’s current apparent success in polls needs to viewed in the context of an electoral system which a) strongly favours the incumbent party, and b) heavily depends on mobilisation of undecided voters on election day. Electoral districts have been subject to extensive gerrymandering, ultimately requiring Tisza to secure a bigger proportion of the popular vote to obtain even a simple majority in parliament. At the same time, the government maintains strong control over Hungary’s media and information landscape, and has coopted various Hungarian state agencies, and has used law enforcement and intelligence agencies for politicised investigations seeking to discredit Magyar and Tisza, and journalists investigating Fidesz officials.
Tisza’s ability to overcome these structural obstacles depends in large part on the extent to which it can keep voters focused on the core issues such as corruption and economic stagnation which have had a material affect on Hungarians, and avoid Ukraine becoming the central electoral issue. The lack of meaningful shifts in the polls this week following the high-profile endorsements of Orbán by Donald Trump and JD Vance suggests that Tisza’s discipline on message may be having an effect. This will be increasingly important in the final days of campaigning.
A new business climate
A Tisza victory may provide new opportunities for business, provided that Magyar is able to reassure the EU and investors about restoring the rule of law and improving economic competition. This will unlock billions of withheld EU funds and loans, including EUR 16.2 billion under the EU’s SAFE defence investment loan mechanism. Considerable uncertainties remain however. Notably, the size of a potential Tisza majority will determine its ability to implement reforms, since it will need overcome various constitutional obstacles put in place by Fidesz. Additionally, while some anti-corruption reforms are expected, given the importance of this to Tisza’s platform, it remains unclear to what extent Tisza will seek a reckoning with the influential Hungarian business figures who have benefited disproportionately from public contracts during Orbán’s rule. Meaningful efforts by a Tisza-led government to investigate potential wrongdoing by such actors – and successfully recover public funds – has the potential to stimulate greater economic participation from investors who had previously disengaged from Hungary due to concerns over the lack of competition.
