With 2026 setting the stage for highly contested elections in US, Hungary, Israel and others, Tamsin Hunt explores the implications of potential outcomes for domestic stability and regional dynamics.
The 2026 election calendar is set to reshape political trajectories across several jurisdictions, with key contests scheduled in the US, Hungary, Israel, Colombia, Peru, and Bangladesh. Across these jurisdictions, the institutional status quo will be put to the test, with elections set to unfold against a backdrop of intensifying domestic pressures, polarising political debate, and in some cases, economic uncertainty.
Midterms in the US
In November 2026, elections will be held for the entire US House of Representatives, and roughly a third of US Senate seats. The Republican Party currently holds a majority in both chambers. As ever, the elections will be hotly contested and have the potential to change the balance of power in Congress. The opposition Democratic Party will seek to build on electoral successes in 2025, having won gubernatorial and mayoral elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and Florida, in order to end the current Republican trifecta. Averages of generic ballot polling show the Democrats currently on track to regain at least the House of Representatives, while the Republicans are favoured to retain the Senate due to the geography of seats up for election, but the complex mix of national, local, and candidate-level factors at play in midterm elections introduces significant uncertainty. Adding to the complexity, both parties must grapple with the implications of redrawn congressional maps following tit-for-tat partisan redistricting. New Congressional maps are either confirmed, pending, or under discussion in at least 13 states.
The outcome of US midterm elections generally pivots on the results of races in a small number of competitive districts, with the potential for protests and other disruption during the pre-election period. The issues motivating protesters in 2026 are likely to continue to centre around affordability, election integrity, and reactions to federal policy, particularly immigration enforcement. There remains a risk of political violence on the campaign trail, including assassinations, following a number of such incidents in 2024 and 2025. Recent years have also seen attempted violence and disruption on election day itself, including bomb threats against polling places and arson attacks on ballot boxes, and there is the possibility of large-scale protests and other civil disorder in the post-election period, particularly if results are contested.
Parliamentary elections in Hungary
In April 2026, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his far-right Fidesz Party will face their most significant electoral challenge in 20 years, posed by former Orbán ally, Péter Magyar. With Hungary experiencing stagnant economic growth for at least three years (estimated at 0.4 percent in 2025), and inflation that remains stubbornly above the central bank target of three percent, Magyar’s campaign of anti-corruption, economic recovery, and improved relations with the EU has been received favourably by voters. However, Magyar’s win in April is by no means a foregone conclusion. Orbán maintains significant influence over the country’s media and government institutions, while also rolling out measures to ease financial pressures and court voters, such as low-interest home loans and tax rebates for families. Additionally, there is significant uncertainty if Magyar will win two-thirds of the vote, a key requirement to securing constitutional majority. Without it, Hungary risks fiscal instability and political deadlock for the remainder of 2026 and beyond, as well as civil unrest over deteriorating socio-economic conditions and political dissatisfaction.
Additionally, this election will have far-reaching ramifications for Hungary’s relationship with the wider region. Under Orbán, Hungary and the EU have increasingly diverged on several topics, including democratic values, aid for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and asylum policy. Hungary has repeatedly used its veto power to block collective EU decisions, while the EU has responded by freezing EUR 18 billion in funds, imposing EUR 200 million in fines, and reportedly considering removing Hungary’s voting rights (a move that would require unanimity). Should Orbán remain in power, his efforts to obstruct EU and NATO foreign policy initiatives are likely to persist, creating internal rifts within the EU and NATO, and fostering disunity that Russia would seek to exploit. While Magyar’s stance on sensitive issues like Russian energy and asylum are unclear, his success at the polls would nevertheless mark a shift in foreign policy trajectory towards the EU.
General elections in Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face a pivotal year for his political career, with Israel’s general elections set to take place before October 2026. First and foremost, Netanyahu and his government will face scrutiny over their security successes and failures in the Gaza Strip, Iran, and Lebanon over the past two years. While Netanyahu’s successes have been notable, questions remain around the disarmament of both Hamas and Hezbollah, and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. The elections are also likely to intensify competition between the country’s far-right and centrist factions. In particular, the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military service has become increasingly divisive, with one side demanding the exemption remains in place, while the other grows resentful after successive military mobilisations. This issue alone has driven recurring, largescale, and sometimes disruptive protests on both sides, a dynamic likely to continue ahead of the polls.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself faces persisting corruption allegations and accusations of intelligence failures ahead of the October 2023 Hamas attack. With Netanyahu’s popularity shifting with each new security or political crisis, his ability to secure enough seats to form a government, even with his coalition partners, is uncertain. Israel may therefore be headed for political gridlock or repeated elections, similar to the period between 2018 and 2022, with no one faction able to form a majority or stable coalition. Additionally, ongoing regional security tensions threaten to disrupt the elections as a whole. Renewed conflict with any one of Israel’s adversaries could prompt the government to reinstate a state of emergency and postpone the polls to a later date.
Elections to watch
Several other countries around the world will head to the polls in 2026, with elections scheduled in Sweden, Portugal, Brazil, Thailand, Nepal, and Ethiopia, to name a few. In particular, elections in Bangladesh, Peru and Colombia will be critical for security and stability in each jurisdiction.
February 2026
BANGLADESH
Bangladesh’s upcoming election marks the first since the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. With Hasina in exile, and her Awami League party banned from running in the election, the country is heading towards a tight contest between opposition parties, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami. Key challenges facing Bangladesh include:
Political violence
Deep political polarisation has a high potential to drive widespread unrest, politically motivated violence, and political instability before and after the elections.
The economy
Economic performance remains a significant concern following years of mismanagement under Hasina. Inflation and unemployment rates are high, international trade tariffs have increased pressure on the country’s key textile industry, and its banking sector is constrained by weak governance and liquidity.
International relations
Diplomatic relations with India have deteriorated, over accusations of India’s support for the former regime blocking valuable avenues for trade and investment.
March 2026
COLOMBIA
Colombia’s political environment is severely fragmented, with dozens of candidates registering intent to run in the election, many as independents. Senator Iván Cepeda, left-leaning leader of the incumbent Pacto Histórico party, has emerged as a prominent front-runner in recent months, but if he is unable to form an effective coalition, a Cepeda government would likely be characterised by the same parliamentary barriers as outgoing President Gustavo Petro. Key challenges facing Colombia include:
Security
The government’s ‘total peace’ policy against organised criminal groups has proved largely inadequate, with armed groups expanding territorial control, and escalating activities such as political interference and assassinations, kidnapping, extortion and drug trafficking.
Corruption
The Pacto Histórico-led government has faced a string of high-profile corruption scandals in late 2025, involving vote buying, embezzlement, and criminal infiltration into military and intelligence services.
International relations
Relations between Colombia and the US have deteriorated in recent months, over Colombia’s restored ties with Venezuela, and sensitive comments made by Petro relating to US policy. Repairing – or further harming – this relationship will have repercussions for the flow of security support, aid, and investment from the US.
April 2026
PERU
In October 2025, Peru’s Congress voted to impeach President Dina Boluarte, six months before the country’s scheduled presidential election. The main reason for her impeachment was her inability to stem Peru’s growing violent crime problem, but her severe unpopularity also presented an electoral challenge for her coalition partners looking to contest in April 2026. Key challenges facing Peru include:
Security
Organised crime and related violence has surged over the five-year period from 2019 to 2024, with homicides increasing by 137 percent, and one in three citizens a victim of extortion.
Minority politics
Peru’s political environment has long been characterised by weak coalitions formed by numerous minority parties. This upcoming election is unlikely to resolve the issue of recurring unstable coalitions and political deadlock.
Corruption
Boluarte, interim President José Jerí, and other senior leaders have faced numerous allegations of corruption, and in Jerí’s case, sexual assault. With decreasing public confidence in the state, Peru is likely to experience recurring episodes of anti-government unrest and political instability.
