Since Friday 13 June 2025, Israel and Iran have been engaged in their most serious direct military confrontation in recent years. Israel launched a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military installations and senior commanders, and Iran responded with waves of ballistic missiles and drones, targeting major Israeli cities.
Operation Rising Lion
Israel's strike, titled 'Operation Rising Lion', was launched with the primary goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, with additional objectives of targeting Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and its military command structure. While the timing of the strike is reported to be as a result of Iran approaching a ‘point of no return’ in its development of nuclear capabilities, Israel’s timing was also in conjunction with the (now cancelled) US-Iran negotiations. It was no secret that Israel was not expecting the next round of negotiations, due to be held in Oman on Sunday 15 June, to yield meaningful results.
Israel's targeting of Iran's military leadership, intended to disrupt command and control capabilities, closely mirrors Israel's 'decapitation' strategy which it conducted in Lebanon against Hezbollah in the second half of 2024. Israel's apparent success in Lebanon in weakening Hezbollah's operational ability and neutralising the threat it posed, now allows Israel to move on from managing the proxy conflict to directly targeting Iran. Rather than simply containing Hezbollah or deterring Iran, Israel now appears to be seeking to fundamentally degrade Iran’s capabilities through precision targeting of their leadership structures. The systemic nature of the strikes and the targets, as with Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah, send a message about Israel’s intelligence capabilities and reach, indicating it has again infiltrated the Iranian rank and file in country in a variety of ways and is now able to target Iranian commanders in their homes, having reportedly established control and superiority of Iranian airspace.
Israel's attacks also targeted oil and gas facilities, including a key fuel depot and an oil refinery in Tehran. These strikes at facilities intended to service Iran's domestic energy consumption, during the early summer months where energy consumption is at its highest in the region, indicates Israel's strategy extends to adding pressure on the Iranian regime in its ability to supply energy for its war effort and for its local economy. The strikes against Iran, and the messaging from Israel, are also clearly designed to reach the Iranian public, indicating this war is not against them, but rather against regime generals and leaders, labelling them as the same generals who ordered the killing of Iranian protesters in the past.
Iran’s retaliation – Operation True Promise 3
The response from Iran will likely seek to continue to making this a costly endeavour for Israel as much as they can. After the operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the fall of the Assad regime in December of last year, the balance of power in the region has considerably shifted against Iran. From the Iranian perspective, Iran's retaliation achieving some tactical success will be vital for Iran to save face domestically, and to prove that they could still throw a punch to restore deterrence capabilities. So far, Iranian missiles penetrating Israel's 'Iron Dome' appears to be one of those successes. Iran still has a few cards it could play, including through activating its network in the region. While a ceasefire between the US and Houthis was agreed last month, Iran and its Houthi allies could still relaunch attacks on ships and vessels passing through the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Iran is also reportedly threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is one of the most important routes in oil transit, and closing it would have major ramifications on oil supplies internationally. However, while threatening to close the Strait before, Iran has never completely done so, as it would also harm Iran's own economy.
Fork in the Road: Catastrophe or Compromise?
On Sunday 15 June, US President Trump suggested Israel and Iran may be willing to de-escalate the tensions after 'fighting it out', and while many expect the tit-for-tat strikes to continue in the coming days and nights, reports are already surfacing of a possible willingness from the Iranian side to return to the negotiation table with the US. Not least since reports have also surfaced on Monday 16 June that Trump ‘vetoed’ an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader. For now, the region stands at a crossroads, with the potential of either further escalation or a fragile pause on the table, with the former seeming likely at the moment, as US President Trump posted on social media on Tuesday 17 June, urging Tehran residents to evacuate the city.
S-RM is monitoring the dynamic situation and actively working with clients to navigate the changes. We are available to discuss any of the information shared here.
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