Terrorism
US
On 10 June, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) officials arrested five suspects across several states including Nebraska, Ohio, California, and Missouri, for allegedly plotting to carry out an attack against US government officials attending the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event, held at the White House in Washington D.C. on 14 June. The suspects reportedly planned to deploy explosive-laden drones to strike nearby buildings and fire on “high value targets” within the fleeing crowd. This followed an active shooter incident at the White House Correspondents Dinner on 25 April, which resulted in one injury. While attacks and assassination attempts targeting senior officials at high-profile public events remain rare in the US, there has been an uptick in such incidents in recent years amid heightened domestic political tensions.
civil unrest
Bolivia
In May and June, anti-government protests escalated in La Paz to demand the resignation of President Rodrigo Paz over dissatisfaction at the perceived slow pace of addressing the country’s economic challenges. Led by indigenous groups, workers’ unions like the Central Obrera Boliviana (COB), and supporters of former left-wing President Evo Morales, protesters have staged road blockades along key routes leading to La Paz and El Alto, contributing to food, fuel and medicine shortages. Many protests have descended into clashes between protesters and law enforcement, prompting riot police to use tear gas and other crowd dispersal measures to prevent protesters from entering government buildings. On 8 June, President Paz signed a law authorising the deployment of military personnel to quell unrest and clear blockades. However, this approach will likely inflame rather than quell the unrest should underlying economic challenges and fuel shortages remain unresolved.
civil unrest
Australia
On 2 June, workers affiliated with an alliance of maritime and electrical labour unions launched a partial strike at three Japanese-owned liquefied natural gas facilities near Darwin in the Northern Territory, after negotiations over wages and working conditions stalled. While the partial strike had limited disruptions, industrial action escalated on 11 June to include loading bans and eight-hour work stoppages, which prompted significant disruptions at the facilities, leading to delays of several vessels bound for Asian ports from Darwin. Although the company applied to the Fair Work Commission (Australia’s workplace tribunal) to halt the strike due to its economic impact, the application was rejected on 14 June, despite findings that the action could trigger a full production stoppage at the facilities. The workers ultimately suspended the strike on 17 June following a deal around wage increases and improved job security.
civil unrest
Japan
In April and May, anti-war activists protested countrywide against proposed revisions to Japan’s traditionally pacifist constitution, including provisions that restrict the country from maintaining conventional military forces and from using or threatening military action. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has promoted the changes as necessary to address an increase in perceived security threats from China and North Korea, while critics argue they would weaken constraints on overseas military involvement and deepen Japan’s alignment with US regional deterrence strategy, which could have the potential for increased Japanese involvement in overseas conflicts. With regional tensions remaining elevated, the debate is likely to sustain protests, particularly among younger voters concerned about military mobilisation. The proposed revisions and Japan’s evolving security posture could also heighten tensions with China, which has long viewed Japanese remilitarisation with suspicion.
civil unrest
Turkey
On 21 May, an appeals court invalidated the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican People's Party, CHP) opposition party’s 2023 leadership contest, removing Özgür Özel from his position as CHP leader. On 24 May, riot police stormed the CHP’s headquarters in Ankara to enforce the ruling. The court decision triggered large-scale protests in several cities, with thousands attending rallies in Ankara, İzmir, and Istanbul between 21 and 30 May. On 26 May, police used water cannons to disperse the crowds at Cumhuriyet Meydanı Square in İzmir. The government has clamped down on political opposition in recent years, typically through court rulings and detentions on corruption charges, and protests have often taken place after such actions against prominent political leaders.
war
Iran
On 17 June, Iran and the US signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end the conflict between the two and Israel, which began on 28 February. The preliminary agreement provides a framework under which Iran and the US will have 60 days to formalise a peace deal, which will seek to regulate Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The memorandum declares the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, while the US is beginning to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran is gradually reopenining the Strait of Hormuz over a 30-day period. While the MoU could reduce regional hostilities in the immediate term, several issues between Iran and the US remain unresolved, including Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and uranium enrichment limits. These issues, or any escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, could complicate or derail the peace talks over the coming months and drive recurring tit-for-tat exchanges between the two sides.
war
Mali
In late April, Al Qaeda‑affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), acting in coordination with the Tuareg‑dominated Front de libération de l’Azawad (FLA), launched a coordinated offensive against Mali’s military‑led government, targeting military facilities, airports, and strategic sites in and around Bamako, Kati, Mopti, Gao, Sévaré and Kidal. Mali’s defence minister, Sadio Camara, was killed in a vehicle‑borne attack on his residence in the garrison town of Kati, near the capital. The assault highlights a shift towards more coordinated insurgent operations, and the continued expansion of jihadist violence across the central Sahel, with JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province now deeply entrenched in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. With regional juntas lacking the counter‑terrorism capacity to reverse these trends, these insurgencies are unlikely to be rolled back in the foreseeable future.
civil unrest
Kenya
On 1 and 9 June, hundreds of activists protested in Nanyuki, Laikipia County, against plans to open an Ebola quarantine centre at Laikipia Air Base for US citizens exposed to the disease in nearby countries. Security forces shot and killed at least two protesters during the 1 June demonstration, while another activist was killed during the 9 June rally. Tensions have remained elevated, particularly as US military aircraft continue transporting equipment for the facility despite a 29 May ruling by the Kenyan High Court halting its opening. Given strong public opposition to the centre, further protests are likely in the coming weeks.
war
Russia
Ukraine’s rapid advances in medium- and long-range drone capabilities, and its growing ability to strike Moscow and other cities, including St Petersburg, are likely to present a growing challenge for President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow was markedly scaled back, with no heavy military hardware on display amid official concern that Ukraine could target the event with long-range drones. On 18 June, Ukraine carried out large-scale drone strikes on the Moscow oil refinery in Moscow Oblast, igniting major fires across the complex and sending black smoke over the capital. Putin has sought to shield major urban centres, such as Moscow, from the conflict through concentrating air defence systems around the capital. However, further fallout from strikes could affect public opinion and begin to degrade public support for the war.
civil unrest
United Kingdom
Between 9 and 11 June, hundreds of anti-immigration and far-right activists rioted across Belfast, Northern Ireland, after a Sudanese refugee stabbed and injured an individual on 8 June. Rioters targeted suspected African migrants, attacking at least 24 homes, dozens of vehicles, businesses linked to migrants, and a bus. Clashes with police resulted in injuries to at least 12 officers and the arrest of 16 rioters. The unrest followed similar anti-immigration riots in Hampshire, England, between 2 and 7 June, after a video emerged showing police arresting a student who had been stabbed and falsely accused him of a hate crime. In both cases, crowds were rapidly mobilised through online channels largely associated with prominent far-right figures such as Tommy Robinson, who attended both demonstrations. Anti-immigration sentiment and far-right activists have gained prominence across the UK in recent years, sustaining the potential for further unrest.
civil unrest
Belgium
In May and June, thousands of anti-austerity activists protested in Brussels and Namur, the capital of the French-speaking Wallonia Region, against regional government spending cuts to education. The demonstrations come amid near-monthly countrywide general strikes opposing austerity measures that have been ongoing since late 2024, as well as intermittent industrial action across the public sector. On 4 June, protests in Namur turned violent after authorities attempted to clear protest blockades, triggering isolated clashes with police, who arrested 10 people. Given widespread opposition to the ruling coalition’s cuts to public services and social security, further anti-austerity protests and strikes are likely in the months ahead.
