In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we explore Iran’s increasing use of proxy networks in Europe, persistent tensions between India and Pakistan, and implications of the US-Ukraine minerals deal for both the current conflict, and longer-term investment challenges.
World news in brief
A roundup of key political violence developments globally. Read this article
Statecraft or criminality? Iran’s covert operations and proxy networks in Europe
Iran has increasingly leveraged connections with criminal networks as part of a broader strategy to advance its foreign policy objectives and target adversaries, particularly in Europe. Under increased pressure in the Middle East, Iran’s position is looking increasingly uncertain. In the long term, Iran is likely to seek to retain the option to operate through proxies abroad. Read this article
Upping the ante: Escalating tensions between Pakistan and India
The May 2025 cross-border clashes between India and Pakistan marked the most serious escalation between the long-time adversaries since the 1999 Kargil War. Despite a ceasefire in place since 10 May, this latest military exchange highlights the recurring and expanding nature of tensions between the two. Read this article
The US-Ukraine minerals deal: Implications and considerations for US investors
Lacking security guarantees, an April 2025 minerals deal between the US and Ukraine changes little on the ground amid ongoing conflict with Russia. It also prompts uncertainty over its longer-term potential to attract US investors amid anticipated challenges – including regional insecurity, operational hurdles, and political and economic instability. Read this article
