civil unrest
Peru
On 15 October, thousands of activists and unionised transport workers marched in Lima to reject interim President José Jerí, and denounce rising criminality. The demonstration escalated after protesters attempted to breach a security perimeter outside Congress, prompting police to forcibly intervene. At least one protester was killed, while 75 others – and around 55 officers – were injured. Despite the impeachment of former President Dina Boluarte by Congress on 10 October, anti-government sentiment and wider grievances over crime and corruption remain prevalent. With frustrations exacerbated by corruption scandals and a sexual assault allegation surrounding Jerí, and the government’s unclear strategy to deal with crime, tensions will continue to fuel unrest in the coming weeks.
civil unrest
Bolivia
Following the victory of centrist candidate Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia’s 20 October run-off elections, hundreds of protesters marched in La Paz and other cities, including Cochabamba, to reject the result and demand an audit over alleged irregularities in the election process. While protests were largely peaceful, there remains potential for unrest and instability in the coming months. With a non-leftist government in place for the first time in two decades, Paz has signalled an intent to reverse the former ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party’s focus on social subsidies and resource nationalism by reducing the fiscal deficit, and opening the economy to foreign investors. With pending subsidy cuts, and the potential for increased investment in Bolivia’s critical minerals sector, a perceived failure to protect vulnerable communities, natural resources, or manage inflation could enable MAS to mobilise supporters against the new administration.
civil unrest
Canada
On 25 September, more than 55,000 workers affiliated with the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) initiated an indefinite countrywide strike to denounce the government’s plans to overhaul Canada’s national postal service, which the union anticipates will result in job losses. The strike prompted the suspension of all mail and parcel deliveries, and the closure of some post office outlets. On 11 October, CUPW announced a partial return to work, with work stoppages continuing on rotation, although service delays persist. Negotiations between the union and Canada Post remain protracted, with CUPW rejecting the company’s latest offer in early October. Should the strike continue, small businesses, retailers and e-commerce platforms will likely be significantly affected, particularly if strike action extends to urban centers like Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver over the November/December holiday season.
war
Palestinian Territories
On 10 October, a US-mediated ceasefire came into effect, bringing an end to the two-year conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group, Hamas. International pressure from the US and other countries will motivate both sides to adhere to the ceasefire in the immediate term. However, several issues remain unresolved that could destabilise the agreement, including disputes over boundary lines, delays in Hamas's handover of hostages, and tensions over Gaza’s governance. These issues will drive periodic tensions as the peace agreement is implemented. Some incidents could occasionally result in high numbers of casualties. On 28 October, for instance, Israeli airstrikes, carried out in retaliation for the alleged Hamas-linked death of an Israeli soldier, killed more than 100 people across Gaza.
civil unrest
Tunisia
On 11 October, hundreds of students and residents stormed a state-owned phosphate processing plant in Gabès, Gabès Governorate, during a demonstration demanding the facility’s closure. Protesters alleged that pollution from the plant has damaged the environment and caused increased respiratory illnesses in the area. Demonstrators blocked roads in the city and set fire to a building belonging to the plant, while police used tear gas to disperse them, with more than 120 people injured. In further actions, the Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail, a national labour union, led city-wide strikes and protests over the issue on 16 and 21 October. Although the government pledged to dismantle polluting units at the facility in 2017, this has yet to be implemented. Further protests driven by grievances around public health concerns and perceived government inaction are likely in the coming weeks, with the potential for violent escalations particularly during clashes with security forces.
war
Pakistan and Afghanistan
On 11 October, Afghan and Pakistani troops clashed along their shared border, amid elevated tensions over Pakistan's accusations that Afghan authorities harbour Islamist militant groups, most notably the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Intermittent skirmishes continued for several days, with Afghan attacks targeting Pakistani military posts in Kurram District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, and Chaman, in Balochistan Province, and the Taliban claiming to have captured several Pakistani military posts. Meanwhile, Pakistan targeted Taliban sites in Kabul and Kandahar Province, reporting to have destroyed weapons and military infrastructure. Dozens of soldiers and civilians were killed on both sides, and all border crossings were closed. Despite a 48-hour ceasefire implemented on 15 October, and a broader ceasefire implemented on 19 October, tensions remain high amid rising Islamist violence in Pakistan, elevating the potential for further clashes.
war
Russia
In September and October, Ukraine intensified long-range drone strikes against Russia’s oil infrastructure, targeting pump stations, pipelines, refineries and terminals across western and central Russia, as well as occupied Crimea. In October alone, Ukraine struck the Feodosia refinery in Crimea twice within one week, causing fires and damage to the facility, while similar attacks were reported at a refinery in Ufa, in the Republic of Bashkortostan, more than 1,200 km from the Ukrainian border. These operations form part of a broader campaign to disrupt Russia’s oil and gas sector, which has driven up domestic fuel prices and forced the Russian government to curb fuel exports – a key source of revenue for its defence budget, which now accounts for roughly 40 percent of total government spending.
war
Sudan
On 26 October, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, captured Al Fashir, North Darfur, after an 18-month siege of the last regional capital in Darfur under military control. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) confirmed their withdrawal from the city, which has faced persistent RSF shelling, drone strikes, and ground assaults in recent months. The UN has also reported ethnically motivated mass killings and summary executions carried out by the RSF. The fall of Al Fashir and the RSF’s consolidation of power in Darfur could shape the potential long-term partition of Sudan, with RSF and SAF areas of control now largely divided along an east-west axis.
Political violence
Madagascar
On 14 October, Army Colonel Michael Randrianirina announced the military had taken control of government, after his elite unit staged a mutiny days prior, which prompted embattled former president Andry Rajoelina to flee the country. The coup followed a series of countrywide anti-government protests that began on 25 September to denounce worsening living conditions, and to demand Rajoelina’s resignation. The security situation in Antananarivo has since stabilised, and Randrianirina has indicated that military rule will continue alongside a civilian government for the next two years before holding new elections. While the situation may ease in the coming weeks, there remain longer-term challenges of unrest and political violence if socio-economic issues are not addressed.
Civil unrest
Belgium
On 14 October, tens of thousands of unionised workers held a countrywide general strike to denounce government austerity measures, as well as proposed labour and pension reforms. Flight disruptions were widely reported, including at Brussels Charleroi Airport, while transport services operated at reduced capacity. The ports of Antwerp, Zeebrugge and Ghent also experienced severe backlogs due to walk-outs, coinciding with a 10-day strike by port workers that impacted wider regional supply chains. Unions have already scheduled further strikes in November, including a railway strike on the 24th, a public service strike on the 25th, and a national strike on the 26th. Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s ruling coalition has maintained that spending cuts are necessary amid budget constraints. Continued deadlocks in negotiations with the government will drive a high likelihood of further disruptions across logistics and travel.
