organised crime
Latin America
Following the US military’s January 2026 capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, and US President Donald Trump’s executive order designating several criminal groups as terrorist organisations, the US administration has stated its intent to expand security operations in Latin America in an ongoing effort to stymie drug trafficking activities into the US. Military strikes have continued against suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, with at least 48 vessels targeted since September 2025. The US has also provided aerial support to a military operation in Ecuador against criminal groups, launching airstrikes in March that targeted a camp allegedly used by the Comandos de la Frontera smuggling group in Sucumbíos Province along the Ecuador-Colombia border. President Trump has indicated willingness to carry out strikes on armed groups in other countries like Mexico. However, this approach poses longer-term challenges, including fragmentation and rivalries among armed groups, or migrations in organised crime hotspots as criminal organisations look to escape targeting and establish alternative trafficking routes.
active assailant
US
In recent months, multiple active assailant incidents have been reported across the US. In March, an armed assailant fatally shot one person and injured two others at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. In February, US Capitol Police arrested an armed assailant outside the US Capitol Building in Washington, DC, who was reportedly carrying a loaded shotgun and ammunition, and wearing a tactical vest. Days later, US Secret Service agents shot and killed an armed individual at President Donald Trump’s Mar‑a‑Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, who had driven a vehicle through the perimeter gate, although the motive or intended target for this attack has not been established. While such incidents are characterised by unpredictability, target profiles have remained relatively consistent, commonly including educational facilities, political and public gathering sites, and areas with high concentrations of people.
crime and extortion
Israel
Violent crime and extortion has increased significantly in Israel in recent years, almost exclusively affecting the Israeli Arab community. According to statistics published in February 2026, there were 241 homicides within the Arab community in 2025, marking a five percent increase from the previous year, and the highest number on record. Violent attacks have continued into 2026, with 46 homicides reported in the first six weeks of the year. Violence mostly stems from organised crime. Extensive criminal syndicates, such as Abu Latif, target local retail stores, construction companies and other businesses in regular extortion schemes that often escalate into shootings, grenade attacks and vandalism.
wrongful detention
Russia
On 8 January, Russia released French national Laurent Vinatier, a researcher employed by a Swiss‑based NGO and detained in Moscow since June 2024. Vinatier was sentenced in October 2024 for failing to register as a “foreign agent,” and later faced additional espionage allegations. His release followed a pardon by President Vladimir Putin as part of a prisoner swap in which France released Russian basketball player Daniil Kasatkin, who was detained in June 2025 on US hacking‑related charges, and faced extradition to the US. Russian authorities have repeatedly detained Western nationals for leverage in negotiations, or for future prisoner exchanges. While recent efforts by US President Donald Trump to improve US‑Russia relations could lead to more frequent negotiations and prisoner swaps, there is no evidence to suggest that this will reduce the risk of detention to foreign nationals. Travel remains especially high-risk for Europeans, given the ongoing deterioration in Moscow’s relations with many European governments.
wrongful detention
Central African Republic
On 4 March, a French national and a Central African colleague working for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) were detained in Haut‑Mbomou Prefecture, near the CAR–DRC border. CAR’s defence ministry accused the French detainee of “activities aimed at destabilising the security situation,” alleging contacts with “criminal elements” and agitation among the local Azande population, and claimed he had previously been arrested in 2016 for links to a rebel group. MSF and French officials rejected these accusations, saying he was part of a cross‑border humanitarian project assisting refugees in nearby Zapay in the DRC. Both workers were transferred to Bangui following their detention and released on 11 March, shortly before French Foreign Minister Jean‑Noël Barrot’s visit to the country – the first visit by a French foreign minister in seven years. Despite this cautious diplomatic reset between Bangui and Paris, the security and political environment for Western nationals remains precarious.
Kidnap for ransom
Democratic Republic of the Congo
On 3 March, militants attacked Upemba National Park in Lusinga, Haut‑Katanga Province, killing at least five workers and kidnapping six foreign nationals. The hostages, including two French, one UK, one Belgian, one German and one US national, were park employees, and were rescued on 6 March, with no serious injuries reported. No details were provided regarding whether a ransom was demanded, and authorities have not disclosed the circumstances surrounding the rescue. While the group responsible has not been formally identified, local reporting has pointed to the Katangan separatist movement, Bakata Katanga, as the possible perpetrators of the attack. Although Bakata Katanga and related militias have previously kidnapped civilians, incidents involving foreign nationals remain comparatively rare.
Active assailant
Austria
Active assailant attacks in Europe have increased in recent years, and Europe has seen several incidents between January and March 2026; in Lyss, Switzerland, an assailant armed with a crossbow attacked at least one person at the Lyss train station in March, firing several bows at the victim, while in January, an individual opened fire at a town hall in Chřibská in the Czech Republic’s Ústí nad Labem Region, killing one person and injuring six others. The UK has also experienced stabbing attacks which saw two people injured in the Calders Garden neighbourhood of southwest Edinburgh in March, and a school stabbing incident in London in February. While mass shootings are infrequent due to strict gun ownership laws across much of the region, incidents can occasionally involve weapons that carry a high risk of casualties. In February, for example, an assailant threw a grenade into a beauty salon in in Grenoble, France, injuring six people.
kidnapping
Bangladesh
In January 2026, police released statistics showing a significant increase in kidnapping cases countrywide, from 642 in 2024 to 1,005 in 2025, accelerating an upward trend seen over the past five years. While police and political actors often frame many of these incidents as financially motivated or linked to personal and land disputes, structural weaknesses in law enforcement are likely a key enabling factor. Hotspots are concentrated in major economic centres, particularly Dhaka and Chattogram, with a significant share of cases involving affluent victims, particularly those operating in the commercial sector. Without credible reforms to policing and governance, this trend is likely to continue in the coming year.
