civil unrest
Global
Protests over rising fuel costs have intensified in recent months, with related demonstrations recorded in Syria, Portugal, France, Peru, Guatemala and the Philippines. In Syria, protests against a steep fuel price increase in mid-September marked the largest mobilisation against government policies since President Al Sharaa took office in December 2024; and in Guatemala, countrywide demonstrations have manifested as road blockades, vandalism, and sporadic clashes, with two police officers injured by gunfire on 12 September. Global fuel prices are likely to remain high over the medium term amid ongoing conflict and shipping challenges in the Middle East, sustaining a strong likelihood for further unrest in these countries and others over the coming months.
war
Iran
On 17 August, the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US officially expired, and negotiations on key issues – such as Iran’s nuclear programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz – remain unresolved. Since then, US-Iran tensions have developed into a series of tit-for-tat military exchanges. The US continues to target Iranian oil tankers and cargo ships, as well as its coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, meanwhile, has returned fire against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz for violating designated routes, and US military bases located in Jordan, Kuwait, and the UAE. Commercial shipping remains particularly exposed to security risks in the region, with numerous vessels damaged and crews evacuated in recent months.
terrorism
Thailand
On 22 and 23 August, suspected insurgents set fire to government buildings, shops, cars and utility poles in a coordinated series of arson attacks on more than 70 locations across Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani and Songkhla provinces. At least three people were injured in the attacks, including two people who were injured when a bomb exploded in Muang District in Narathiwat. Additionally, in Narathiwat, a rail line was hit by explosives, prompting the suspension of services along the affected route. While no group claimed responsibility, Thailand's southern region has faced a decades-long insurgency seeking greater autonomy, and the attacks come as the government seeks to revive peace talks with the main separatist group fighting in the region, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN).
civil unrest
India
In July and August, activists affiliated with the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), a youth-led political movement, held a series of demonstrations in New Delhi and other parts of the country to denounce mismanagement of the education sector and to demand the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. The protests forced high-profile accountability, including Pradhan’s resignation, and inspired demonstrations in other parts of the country. These protests demonstrate the success of youth-led movements in leveraging social media to mobilise and pressure concessions from the state, and inspire other digitally-enabled youth movements, signalling a shift away from traditional party-backed strikes towards agile and non-ideological movements.
civil unrest
Germany
On 21 September, nearly 180,000 unionised automotive workers protested peacefully at 280 locations countrywide, calling on the German government and vehicle manufacturers to do more to protect jobs. The demonstrations are taking place amid prolonged economic pressure on German carmakers, their subsidiaries and partners, driven by weakening demand and growing competition from Chinese manufacturers. Recent restructuring measures, including mass layoffs and plant closures, have prompted increasingly frequent industrial action. With collective bargaining talks due in October, warning strikes are likely if negotiations stall or break down, particularly over job cuts and site closures.
civil unrest
Belgium
On 16 September, unionised air traffic control (ATC) workers held an eight-day strike at Brussels South Charleroi Airport to demand higher compensation for nighttime work, downing tools daily between 22h00 and 08h00 local time. The strike, which primarily targeted public-owned air navigation service provider Skeyes, also came amid an ongoing dispute between unions and Skeyes over the installation of two remotely controlled ATC control towers at Charleroi Airport as part of a broader move to centralise Charleroi and Liège ATC operations to a single centre in Namur. Though Charleroi is officially closed between 23h00 and 06h00, the strike caused significant direct and knock-on travel disruptions, resulting in 30 to 50 flight cancellations daily. Strike action was suspended on 23 September following the resumption of collective bargaining talks, however, the workers’ strike notice remains in force until 10 October, and unions continue to oppose the ATC centralisation plan, sustaining the potential for further disruptions over the coming year.
political violence
Niger
On 28 and 29 August, mutinous soldiers launched coordinated attacks on key sites in Niamey, including the presidential palace, Air Base 101 at Diori Hamani International Airport and the state broadcaster. They briefly controlled parts of the airport complex before Nigerien forces, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps, regained control after nearly 24 hours of fighting. Dozens of mutineers were killed or arrested. Although contained, the failed mutiny exposed divisions within the armed forces, low morale among junior personnel following heavy combat losses against Islamist militants, declining confidence in the junta’s response to the Islamist insurgency and its reliance on Russian support. Consequently, there is potential for attempted mutinies in the coming months if these grievances remain unresolved.
war
Sudan
Between 11 and 13 August, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) gained control over the strategic towns of Geisan and Kurmuk, Blue Nile State, following heavy clashes with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). This event closely followed the SAF’s late July recapture of the Al Sadarat highway – an arterial road linking Khartoum to El Obeid, North Kordofan State – which alleviated the impact of the RSF’s siege on El Obeid. It is likely the RSF has since shifted its focus towards southeastern Sudan, as evidenced by not only its territorial captures in Blue Nile, but also mid-September attacks targeting dams in the Kassala and Al Qadarif states. With the RSF now controlling a portion of Sudan’s borders with South Sudan and Ethiopia, the latter of whom Sudan has accused of providing logistical support to the RSF, there is elevated potential for widespread clashes to emerge in southeastern Sudan.
war
Russia
In recent months, Ukraine has intensified long-range drone strikes against oil refineries and logistics facilities across western Russia. Repeated attacks on major refineries have contributed to Russian refining output falling to its lowest level in more than two decades, prompting export restrictions on refined fuels, increased imports and localised supply constraints. Ukraine has also targeted warehouses and distribution hubs linked to major online retailers, which Kyiv says were used to supply the Russian military with dual-use goods, broadening the campaign beyond energy infrastructure to disrupt logistics and raise the economic costs of the war. Further strikes are likely in the coming months as Ukraine seeks to constrain fuel supplies, reduce export revenues and expose gaps in air defences around strategically important commercial sites.
war
Ukraine
In recent months, Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counter-offensive north of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, reversing parts of Russia’s advance towards the strategic cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to the south. The operation reportedly began around May and, by mid-September, had reduced or largely eliminated a Russian salient in the area, with estimates placing Ukrainian gains at up to 200 square kilometres. Ukraine’s use of strict operational security, combined with drone strikes against Russian logistics and weaknesses in Russian frontline reporting, appears to have constrained Moscow’s ability to reinforce exposed units. The gains are unlikely to signal a broader Ukrainian breakthrough, but they have disrupted Russia’s plans to pressure Lyman and outflank key Ukrainian positions in northern Donetsk Oblast.
civil unrest
United States
On 24 September, at least 400 protesters, led by the Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) advocacy group, gathered outside the United Nations (UN) headquarters in Manhattan, New York City, to oppose Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the UN General Assembly and demand an end to US military support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Protesters blocked a section of First Avenue, and police arrested around 103 people after ordering them to clear the road, including Democratic congressional nominee Darializa Avila Chevalier. Thousands also marched to the UN headquarters, led by the Palestinian Youth Movement and The People’s Forum. Meanwhile, in Washington, DC, hundreds of people gathered outside the White House to coincide with a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. Multiple activist groups gathered to denounce alleged human rights abuses against minority communities in China, while pro-China activist groups also held various protests across the country. These protests reflect a pattern of significant mobilisation around political flashpoints, particularly in the lead-up to the November midterm elections.
civil unrest
Argentina
On 19 September, thousands of political activists and groups affiliated with left-wing parties marched in Buenos Aires to denounce President Javier Milei’s economic policies, after months of austerity measures, including public sector funding cuts, amid rising household debt. While the main demonstration took place in Buenos Aires, where thousands marched from Congreso Nacional to the Plaza de Mayo, simultaneous marches were held in at least 30 cities countrywide, including Córdoba, Rosario and Tucumán - prompting significant traffic and commercial disruptions. Protest organisers have presented the government with a manifesto demanding the repeal of recent labour reforms, as well as immediate wage and pension increases. Over the coming months, amid unmet protester demands and ongoing grievances over Milei’s austerity programme, further demonstrations aimed at maintaining pressure on the government are likely.
