In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we explore key issues that could trigger an escalation in unrest in the United States as a polarised electorate heads towards midterm elections in 2026, consider the military junta’s prospects in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war and upcoming elections following a recent shift in conflict dynamics, and discuss the potential for the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces to rule as parallel authorities in Sudan following the fall of Al Fashir.
World news in brief
A roundup of key political violence developments globally. Read this article
Trouble ahead: Rising political tensions foreshadow 2026 US midterm elections
As the US heads towards the November 2026 midterm elections, increased political polarisation and growing public dissatisfaction over a range of policy issues are expected to heighten tensions and drive unrest and disruption across the country in the coming year. Read this article
Besieged, then broken: How RSF control of Al Fashir threatens to split Sudan
The late October capture of Al Fashir consolidated the Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) control over southwestern Sudan, splitting security control over the country in two. With neither the RSF or the Sudanese Armed Forces likely to yield or decisively conquer the other, Sudan finds itself increasingly faced with the reality of parallel governance and enduring insecurity. Read this article
Regaining ground: Myanmar’s military comeback and the road to elections
Over the past few months, Myanmar’s military has won several significant battlefield victories against the country’s rebel groups, signalling a turnaround from the heavy losses it suffered in 2023 and 2024. Amid growing international support for the military, it will continue its offensive and seek to improve its political legitimacy in elections scheduled for December 2025. Read this article
