War/terrorism
Mali
On 1 October, the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), a coalition of Tuareg and Arab nationalist groups, took control of the Bamba military base in Northern Mali’s Gao Region. Despite signing the 2015 peace agreement with the government and pro-government militias, the CMA has initiated several attacks on military assets in northern Mali since August 2023, moving to fill the power vacuum following the withdrawal of UN peacekeeping forces. These dynamics drive the potential for rekindled conflict in the region, particularly if Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, an Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamist militant group, leverages its ties with CMA leaders to extend control in areas nominally held by rebels.
Terrorism
Uganda
On October 17, suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants ambushed a vehicle in Queen Elizabeth National Park, Kasese District, killing three people, including a British and a South African national. This follows a similar ADF attack in the area on October 13, which killed two people. While the ADF primarily operates in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), they sporadically launch cross-border attacks into Uganda, including a June 2023 attack on a school near the Congolese border where 41 people were killed. Limited law enforcement capabilities have left border communities vulnerable to heightened ADF activity.
Terrorism
Colombia
On 16 October, the Colombian government signed a three-month ceasefire agreement with a dissident faction of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), signalling the start of peace talks. Despite President Gustavo Petro’s progress in negotiating with various militant groups, relations between militant factions and the Colombian government remain fragile and subject to rapid deterioration. In September and October, FARC militants launched several separate attacks against police stations and security installations in Cauca and Valle del Cauca departments, resulting in multiple civilian casualties. Ongoing incidents will sustain tensions and distrust, threatening to derail the peace process in the coming months.
Terrorism
Belgium
On 16 October, an armed assailant allegedly of Tunisian descent killed two people after opening fire on Swedish football supporters in Brussels. The assailant claimed on social media that he was inspired to carry out the attack by the Islamic State (IS) militant group. Security forces killed the attacker in a shootout in Schaerbeek on 17 October. Authorities briefly raised Belgium’s terror alert to thehighest level.
War
Ukraine
On 17 October, Ukraine targeted Russian-controlled airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk with US-supplied army tactical missile systems (ATACMS). The strikes destroyed nine Russian helicopters and other military equipment, reportedly marking one of the most destructive attacks on Russian targets during the current war. The use of ATACMS threatens Russian logistics, ammunition depots, and airfields in the occupied territory, previously believed to be out of reach for Ukrainian missile systems. Ukraine will likely rely on the use of ATACMS to offset their struggling counter-offensive in southern Ukraine before winter weather complicates further offensive operations.
War
Nagorno-Karabakh
On 19 September, Azerbaijan launched an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, quickly capturing the territory and forcing local security personnel to disarm. Local authorities also agreed to disband by the end of 2023. While Armenia has not taken military action in response to the Azerbaijani offensive, tensions between the two countries will likely persist, particularly concerning Azerbaijan's ambition to link its territory to its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave, situated between Armenia, Turkey, and Iran.
Terrorism
Turkey
On 1 October, two Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (PKK) militants detonated a bomb outside the interior ministry in Ankara. One attacker was killed, and two officers were injured, while security forces killed the second assailant. This was the first attack in the capital since 2016, prompting the government to launch airstrikes against dozens of PKK targets in northern Iraq and northeastern Syria. A ceasefire between the PKK and Turkey – implemented after the earthquakes in February 2023 – ended in June, and Turkey has since increased its attacks against the PKK in Iraq and Syria, launching hundreds of missiles and drones into each territory.
Terrorism
Syria
On 5 October, an armed drone attack killed 89 people and injured 277 others at a Military College in Homs, shortly after a military graduation ceremony. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, although Syrian authorities have accused Jihadist opposition factions that retain control in some parts of Syria. This incident was the deadliest attack within government-held territory in recent years, since the government asserted control over the majority of Syrian territory in 2020. Regime forces subsequently launched airstrike and artillery attacks against opposition strongholds in Aleppo and Idlib governorates, which killed at least 41 civilians.
Civil unrest
Australia
On 8 September, unionised workers went on strike at two major liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in Gorgon and Wheatstone in Western Australia, demanding increased wages and improved working conditions. These facilities account for more than five percent of global LNG supply, and the labour dispute has prompted volatility in the global market, with gas prices increasing by up to 35 percent in August. The LNG company and unions reached a deal on 22 September, bringing the work stoppage to an end. While the deal collapsed in early October, reviving the threat of renewed strike action at the two plants, another agreement was reached on 18 October, with unions finally calling off a strike scheduled to begin on 19 October.
Civil unrest
United States
On 15 September, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, representing over 146,000 automotive workers countrywide, initiated strikes against three major US auto producers, calling for improved wages and benefits, and for workers at the firms' electric vehicle battery plants to be included into the union. The dispute continued in October, manifesting as walk-outs and protests countrywide, causing ongoing commercial disruptions and an estimated USD 4.2 billion in losses for the affected automakers. The UAW and the car manufacturers reached a tentative deal on 30 October, signalling an end to the strike.
Unrest
Global
Since Hamas’s invasion into southern Israel on 7 October, protests have taken place globally in support of Israel and Palestine. Some pro-Palestine demonstrations have targeted US and other Western embassies and consulates, including in Lebanon, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea and South Africa. Thousands of pro-Palestine activists have also protested throughout the Middle East and elsewhere to denounce a rocket strike on a hospital in Gaza on 17 October, which killed hundreds of people. Meanwhile, protests in support of Israel have occurred in New York, London and Berlin, denouncing antisemitism and calling for the release of several hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. On 9 October, rival protesters scuffled near the United Nations compound in New York City following a pro-Palestinian rally in Times Square. Unrest will continue as the conflict and associated humanitarian consequences persist
or intensify.
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