As we look ahead into 2026, we face a global landscape marked by geopolitical volatility, rising protectionism, and competing priorities. It remains the case, as noted in our recent 2025 Investor Sentiment Report: Forces of Change, that the future value of today’s companies will be determined by their engagement with the fundamental challenges of our turbulent times. For investors looking toward Africa, the terrain has shifted from a world defined by multilateral engagement to one increasingly shaped by fragmentation, bilateral agreements, and evolving and competing spheres of influence.
Yet, out of this disruption, a clear picture is emerging: Africa’s role in the global economy is not diminishing. It is becoming more critical. As supply chains shift and capital becomes more selective, the continent offers profound opportunities for those willing to pursue resilient, risk-adjusted strategies. To navigate this fragmented world, investors must cut through the noise and understand the specific geopolitical, sectoral, and operational dynamics at play.
The geopolitical pivot: A new centre of gravity
Evidence of the realignment of the geopolitical order is showing across the continent. Global power dynamics are creating a complex mix of influence that directly impacts the investment landscape. On one hand, we see a potential retreat from multilateralism in the West. Policy positions during the second presidential term of Donald Trump in the US have raised questions about the long-term future of initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and funding for USAID. AGOA – the foundational economic agreement between Africa and the US – technically expired on 30 September 2025, although it appears to have been revived after the House of Representatives passed a bill in January to extend it until 2028, while USAID was officially closed in 2025, significantly reducing US funding for development programmes in Africa. This perceived reduction in investment creates a vacuum in capacity building and infrastructure – areas where the need remains acute.
However, where one door closes, others are opening. While China has long been a leading financier on the continent, recently removing import tariffs for 53 African countries to bolster trade, we are now witnessing an acceleration in the strategic deployment of capital from the Gulf. The Gulf-Africa investment corridor has become a vital source of growth, with nations like the UAE emerging as a prominent source of foreign investment into Africa.
This is not merely transactional – it is strategic. Over the past decade, Gulf states have pledged over USD 100 billion to the continent, moving beyond resource extraction into sectors that align with today’s “mega-trends”. This shift from broad multilateral aid to targeted bilateral investment is reshaping how projects are financed and executed across the continent, particularly in infrastructure, energy, mining (including critical minerals), and technology.
Strategic opportunities in a changing landscape
Despite the headwinds of global geopolitical realignment, long-term opportunities for private capital are growing. The increasing prioritisation of beneficiation and intra-Africa trade has enormous potential. Regional trade hubs are emerging from Kenya in the east to Benin and Nigeria in the west, facilitating a greater role for Africa in global supply chains.
Three key sectors stand out as critical intersections of risk and opportunity:
1. Digital transformation and fintech
Africa is in the midst of a digital leap. Given the largely informal nature of many economies, the continent has in some areas leapfrogged traditional developmental stages, moving straight to mobile-first solutions. Fintech and internet penetration have shown remarkable resilience to external shocks, with hubs in Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt attracting significant global attention.
Gulf investors are at the forefront of this shift, investing in AI and digital infrastructure to drive inclusive growth. We are seeing collaborations that enhance predictive analytics for supply chains and programs designed to build local capacity. However, as the sector matures, it brings new risks: data localisation laws, cyber-security threats, and the potential for social backlash if AI is perceived to be displacing jobs. Navigating this requires a commitment to “soft infrastructure” – partnering with local operators to ensure compliance and fostering skills transfer.
2. Supply chain resilience and critical minerals
The race to shore up global supply chains has placed Africa’s natural resources back in the spotlight. However, the narrative has shifted from pure extraction to beneficiation. Both the US and the UAE are actively seeking to secure critical minerals for renewable energy and technology ambitions. The US commitment to the Lobito Corridor rail project highlights the strategic importance of physical infrastructure and logistics in unlocking this value.
Simultaneously, the UAE has allocated significant capital to copper-rich nations like Zambia and the DRC. The opportunity here lies in moving up the value chain. Developing local processing capabilities not only creates skilled jobs and tax revenue but also mitigates the risks associated with volatile commodity prices. For investors, this means aligning with host nations’ strategic objectives, thus viewing beneficiation not as a cost or expense, but as a path to sustainable and resilient operations, which in today’s world attract a premium.
3. Energy transition and climate adaptation
Africa faces the dual challenge of structural energy deficits and systemic climate volatility. Inconsistent access to power threatens everything from mining and manufacturing to healthcare. Here, climate finance is emerging as a crucial resilience tool. At COP28 in 2023, the UAE pledged USD 4.5 billion toward African clean-energy projects, aiming to mobilize private capital that might otherwise shy away from the region’s power grids – an investment trend reiterated at subsequent global summits, including the recent G20 in South Africa.
The shift in focus has been towards "greening" investments that serve dual purposes. For example, combined solar-storage plants can provide reliable power, even during droughts, bypassing the vulnerabilities of water-strained hydropower. These projects offer a hedge against climate shocks, but they are not immune to risk. Policy instability regarding renewable tariffs or subsidies remains a threat, requiring investors to have a deep, real-time understanding of the political pulse on the ground, and of how potential changes could impact an investment.
Navigating the risk landscape
Unlocking these opportunities requires thoughtful and contextualised assessment of potential risks and the particular characteristics of each unique country and operating environment. The risks are rarely continental – they can be geopolitical, national, sectoral, and often hyper-local.
Political and regulatory instability: This remains an acute issue, particularly for long-duration assets in mining, energy, and infrastructure. Investors must be prepared for political change that can drastically alter government priorities. We have seen flagship projects jeopardised by new administrations seeking to prove their difference from predecessors. Staying close to local stakeholders and regulators is not just a compliance exercise; it is a strategic necessity to reduce exposure to such risks, and to build resilience.
Corruption and compliance: Corruption risks remain a priority consideration, with widespread patronage networks making certain markets vulnerable. However, we are seeing improvements. The digitalisation of procurement processes is eliminating lower-level bribery in some jurisdictions, and there is a growing trend toward strengthening anti-corruption frameworks in line with FATF recommendations. Understanding the specific mechanics of corruption in a target market is essential to designing effective safeguards.
Security and conflict: In some regions, fragile security situations compound political instability. From the Sahel to parts of East Africa, conflict dynamics can disrupt strategic transport corridors. Investors need to monitor these threats closely, potentially diversifying across multiple logistics routes to ensure continuity.
Infrastructure deficits: While it represents an opportunity for investment, the current infrastructure deficit is also a significant operational risk. Logistics costs in Africa are among the highest in the world due to inefficiencies. However, this is where the “force multiplier” effect of infrastructure investment comes into play. Well-executed investments in transport infrastructure and logistics – like those led by DP World and AD Ports Group – can turn these vulnerabilities into strategic assets, enhancing connectivity and trade flows for the broader economy, thereby catalysing economic growth.
Conclusion: A future-focused approach
The overall picture is one of a continent in transition. The "macro noise" of global geopolitics – trade wars, protectionism, and conflict – will continue to reverberate across Africa. But for investors who take a future-focused approach, the potential is immense.
Success in this rapidly changing world requires more than just capital. It requires a nuanced understanding of risk at a granular level. It demands "on the ground" research to validate assumptions and the humility to leverage the institutional knowledge of local partners. Whether it is pairing hard infrastructure investments with community employment schemes to strengthen the social licence to operate, or structuring agricultural projects to include smallholder farmers, the most successful investments will be those that align commercial goals with local developmental needs.
By building resilience into their investment thesis and navigating the complex interplay of geopolitical and local risks, investors can play a vital role in unlocking the innovation that exists within Africa, enabling it to flourish in 2026 and in the decades to come.
