Geopolitical risks are expected to dominate and continue to impact organisational continuity and resilience in 2026. This places greater emphasis on the need for businesses to map vulnerabilities and prepare for impact.
Geopolitical developments have moved at a dizzying speed over the last few years and there is no sign that the world will be short of such events in 2026. The geopolitical rivalries and battlelines reshaping the current world order are by now well underway, providing a clearer picture of where companies should focus their attention when seeking to predict risks and soften the impact. However, the fast-moving and increasingly disruptive nature of geopolitics leaves significant room for unrest, which tends to manifest within countries along the spectrum of protests, riots, insurrections, border clashes or even prolonged military conflict. In this Political Violence Special Edition, we touch on some of the critical issues that will influence the political violence landscape globally in the coming year.
We enter the new year with multiple conflicts left unresolved; Russia-Ukraine, Sudan, Mali, and several others brewing or with the potential to escalate – India-Pakistan, Iran-Israel, US-Venezuela to name a few. Some of these conflicts are playing out in new arenas, with greater use of grey-zone tactics and a more forceful pursuit of national security goals. Meanwhile, although the contours of a new global economic framework are increasingly taking shape, we should expect trade negotiations to bring plenty of uncertainty, with the threat of protectionism still looming large. These trends will continue to drive strikes and social unrest in countries significantly affected by associated job losses and higher costs of goods. These same socio-economic issues will no doubt be at the forefront of some critical elections on the horizon, several of which are taking place against rising polarisation and economic uncertainty. While some global powers turn their focus inwards, 2025’s Gen Z protesters demonstrate that digital interconnectedness and cross-cutting socio-economic grievances can unite and inspire grassroots movements transcending borders. Driven by deep disappointment in the prevailing socio-economic dynamics and elites in power, we should expect further such protests in countries with the right mix of vulnerabilities.
In a global environment prone to shifting circumstances, it remains crucial for organisations to invest in understanding, mapping and preparing for emerging risks. Structured analytical methods can be valuable tools to help organisations prepare not only for the most likely outcomes, but also for the less certain – but perhaps more disruptive – outcomes. Scenario mapping, regular threat assessments, and tailored monitoring can all help organisations to retain control amid proliferating risks. Alongside this, recognising priorities for business continuity can clarify where to direct efforts towards risk mitigation.
When the world is moving fast, it is more important than ever to have a robust system capable of identifying early signs of change in the operating environment, both to deal with potential threats, or to seize opportunities.
in this edition
The cost of competition: Trade tensions drive potential for local instability
As global trade disputes intensify, the fallout of trade volatility has driven supply chain upheaval, commercial uncertainty, and unrest. The trickle-down effect of destabilised supply chains amid existing domestic economic challenges threatens to drive demonstrations and strikes across the US, Canada, Mexico and Europe. Read the article
High-stake ballots: Key elections in 2026
The 2026 election calendar includes several critical elections. Polls in the US, Hungary, Israel, Peru and Bangladesh are taking place against a backdrop of intensifying domestic pressures, polarising political debate and an uncertain global economic environment. Read the article
New Frontiers: The Changing Face of Conflict and Competition
In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment, major powers are expanding the range of tools used to pursue national security goals, strengthen economic influence, and securing strategic resources. In 2026 we expect to see continued use of grey-zone tactics by Russia, more assertive military posturing in the Caribbean and increased competition over strategic resources and critical supply chains. Read the article
Taking back tomorrow: Youth uprisings demand consequential change
Youth protests are not a wholly new phenomena, but Gen Z protests – driven by disgruntlement over poor socio-economic conditions and disillusionment with elites – have emerged as a powerful force for political change. Innovatively utilising digital tools and inspiring fellow youths across borders, Gen Z protest movements will remain part of the global political landscape in 2026. Read the article
