In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at the challenges faced by Ukraine in its ongoing defensive against Russian aggression, delve into the longstanding grievances set to drive civil unrest in Senegal well beyond the March election, and investigate Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s supposed commitment to a diplomatic resolution with Guyana.
World news in brief
A roundup of key political violence developments globally. Read the article
russia cis
Holding the line: The importance of Ukraine’s defence in 2024
In February, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, marking Russia’s most significant territorial advance since it captured Bakhmut in May 2023. The advance comes as Ukraine faces continued weapons shortages in its increasingly beleaguered fight against Russian aggression. Further territorial gains by Russia are on the cards, but Kyiv’s resolve should not be underestimated. As Ukraine buckles down for a hard fight in 2024, the coming year will bring with it new challenges for Russia too. Read the article
west africa
Beyond the ballot box: Senegal at a crossroads
Although elections proceeded in Senegal despite President Macky Sall’s attempt to delay the vote, the new government has many more battles to face. As the country grapples with entrenched socio-economic challenges and navigates economic prospects with oil and gas production set to come online this year, a young population facing high unemployment and disenchantment means that the potential for further protests looms large. Read the article
latin america
More than meets the eye: Venezuela’s commitment to a diplomatic resolution with Guyana
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s intentions to annex Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region were made clear in late 2023. Though these have been purportedly tempered by a growing commitment to find a diplomatic resolution, an expanded military presence along the border paints a different picture, driving the potential for further military provocation with Guyana before any solution is found. Read the article
