In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we explore the domestic, regional and international implications of the July coup in Niger; discuss the ongoing challenges of high crime rates in Ecuador, including the potential impacts it may will have on the country’s governance; and weigh up the prospects for lasting peace in Colombia following the August ceasefire between the government and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) militant group.
World news in brief
A roundup of key political violence developments globally. Read the article
Middle east
Friend or foe: The (other) stakeholders in the Israel-Hamas conflict
Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October, and the ensuing air and ground offensive from Israel into Gaza, has raised numerous questions about the knock-on effects across the region. Various players, including Egypt, Iran and Qatar have longstanding interests and involvement in the Israel-Palestine question, and this recent attack has the potential to shake up several key dynamics and regional relationships. Read the article
guatemala
The people have spoken: Persisting threats to Arévalo’s transition to power in Guatemala
Bernardo Arévalo’s surprise win in the Guatemalan presidential election has sent the sitting administration and its allies scrambling in efforts to undermine the result. Though current President Alejandro Giammattei has committed to stepping down at the end of his term, Guatemala’s democracy remains fragile, and the prospect of extended unrest a reality. Read the article
serbia and kosovo
On the brink: Tensions escalate between Serbia and Kosovo
A September clash between a group of Serb gunmen and Kosovar security forces in a majority ethnic Serbian area in northern Kosovo, the worst outbreak of fighting in more than 20 years, signals difficult times ahead for a sustainable political resolution. While a direct conflict between Serbia and Kosovo is unlikely to serve either country’s interests, current tensions are likely to herald a period of prolonged instability in the area. Read the article
