The outbreak of COVID-19 has had devastating effects on populations and economies and continues to impact everyday lives globally. The virus had a fast onset and spread rapidly, forcing countries into lockdown to prevent overwhelming healthcare sectors. Businesses were forced to close and it was uncertain when they would reopen or resume normal operations.
The effects on different sectors have varied, but no sector has been spared significant impact. These consequences were a result of a naturally occurring, low virulence virus with a mortality rate of 3.4%. Compared with Ebola or Anthrax, with mortality rates of 50% or up to 80% respectively, or the potential effects of a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack, the human consequences could be far worse. The lessons that have emerged from the response to COVID-19 will be helpful for organisations preparing for future, unpredictable events.
Threat actors will not be ignorant to the consequences of COVID-19 and the pandemic may re-ignite interest in developing and exploiting CBRN agents. COVID-19 is a mass casualty event and it is feasible that replicating its effects (mortality and transmission rates) will be of interest to a would-be attacker. The methodologies and instruction on how to produce homemade chemical or biological agents is readily available online. There is historical precedent for this type of attack plot but weaponising and deploying a CBRN agent that is capable of causing mass casualties remains infeasible, and plots are vulnerable to failure and disruption.
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