In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we take a close look at the knock-on effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, assessing the economic and political ramifications, looking at shifts in the global political order, and reflecting on the potential for growing civil unrest in the wake of a European refugee crisis and worsening socio-economic conditions caused by the conflict.
evacuation from high-risk jurisdictions: Challenges and Best Practices
The Hydra of Megabandas: Organised Crime in Venezuela
In recent months, security forces have successfully killed several powerful gang leaders and cracked down on organised crime activities. This suggests a significant change in President Nicolás Maduro’s handling of such groups. While these efforts are likely an attempt to bolster the regime and president’s image, the offensive against organised crime could have positive implications for Venezuela’s crime landscape.
SECURITY VACUUM: ORGANISED CRIME AND KIDNAPPING PROLIFERATES AMID INSTABILITY IN HAITI
Violent crime has proliferated in Haiti since the assassination of former president Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, which left a major power vacuum that several powerful criminal gangs have stepped into. These gangs have kidnapped large groups of foreign nationals, cut off aid and fuel supplies to Port-au-Prince, and blockaded critical entry and exit points, including roads and ports. Amid Haiti’s ongoing political and security crisis, kidnappings and violent crimes will likely escalate in 2022. This article considers the trajectory of Haiti’s security landscape, as well as the potential for gangs’ growing control in and outside of Port-au-Prince to threaten foreign nationals, and even hinder aid and evacuation efforts.
Crisis Complex: The growing kidnapping concern in Cameroon’s Far North
On 25 February 2022, militants kidnapped five aid workers including three foreign aid workers, in Fotokol, Far North Region. The three aid workers, include a Senegalese, Ivorian, and a Chadian national employed by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). Northern Cameroon has experienced a rise in inter-communal violence since December 2021 and Boko Haram militants are also present in the area. This article investigates the main threat actors amid the deteriorating security situation in northern Cameroon and discusses the potential for further kidnappings of aid workers operating in the area.