In this bulletin we look at developing political violence stories for 2021, and explore how some of these dynamics are likely to shape global events. Over the past twelve months, terrorism and civil unrest events have taken place in spite of the Covid-19 pandemic – many of the issues driving these conflicts remain unresolved, and will prompt further unrest and violence in the year ahead. We unpack these stories in this year’s Political Violence Special Edition.
Winds of change: An end to US isolationism under Biden?
A change in the US presidency is likely to result in a notable shift in US foreign policy priorities. As Joe Biden takes the helm from Donald Trump, we expect a return to a more predictable and orthodox approach to US interactions on the global stage.
Trumped: US foreign policy in the Middle East under the Biden administration
The Middle East presents a range of challenges for the newly elected US president. Joe Biden has signalled his intent to re-engage with Iran over nuclear non-proliferation in direct contrast with his predecessor.
No Simple Solutions: Tackling Islamic Terrorism in France
Following several terror attacks in France in late 2020, the French government’s response demonstrated the continued difficulties Europe is having in effectively responding to Islamist terror attacks without alienating moderate Muslims.
Trouble in Tigray: Prospects for a sustained conflict in Ethiopia’s northern region
The Ethiopian National Defence Forces’ attack into the country’s Tigray region on 4 November sent Ethiopia into tumult, and the path for a resolution to this conflict is still far from clear.
New Russian interventionism: Fewer troops, more challenges
Russia has recently shown notable restraint in its dealings with unrest in its regional neighbourhood. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and mass anti-government protests in Belarus, for example, have elicited a far more conciliatory rhetoric from Moscow than some expected.
To the left? Latin America’s political future amid a surge in populism
Anti-government protests from 2019 through 2020 in several Latin American countries saw demonstrators demand left-leaning solutions to various socio-economic grievances – and calls to replace right-wing governments.
Protests across Asia: Origins, implications and outlook
The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to economic woes in many Asian countries, adding to an established list of grievances many hold with their governments in the region.